Sizing Up Team Movements --- Part 2

Dallas: Jerry tries to recoup lost ground from the '09 draft, may not have added enough talent for the long-term
Most impact: I don't see any rookie from the '10 class as having any signifcant impact at this point. It's too soon to tell. If you are counting on big things from Dez Bryant, Dallas would be lucky if he learned the playbook and ran good enough routes to get on the field as the 4th receiver consistently by November. I like Sean Lee but I need to see if knees hold up. Mentally, he's NFL-ready.
Biggest risk: Not getting any impact out of the '09 or '10 class. The division is more competitive with Mike Shanahan and Donovan McNabb in Washington. The Eagles are reloading. The Giants have given Dallas fits since the '08 Divisional Playoff game. In '09, Jerry went with quantity over quality. In '10, Jerry went quality. He might get something out of nothing if any of his '09 draftees show up - linebackers Jason Williams, Brandon Williams, Victor Butler, and Stephen Hodge were all injured in '09.
Best value: Akwazi Owuzu-Ansah was a pre-draft fave, but he has a should injury and might end up on the PuP list. The Ansah might end up being a free safety in a few years if he can adjust to life outside the Pennsylvanie State Athletic Conference. I like a lot of their undrafted free agent class: Mike Tepper (OT - Cal); Barry Church (S- Toledo); Lonyae Miller (RB - Fresno State) and Lorenzo Washington (DE - Alabama). Dallas is very deep along the DL, and might be able to sneak Tepper, Miller, Washington the practice squad. I would like to see Chris Gronkowski (yes, Rob's brother, there are a gang of Gronkowskis in professional football now) make the team in some capacity.  More Gronkowskis the better. 
Moves they'll make before camp: Well, they solved one problem by trading Bobby Carpenter for Alex Barron. I think the trade favored St Louis, but several scouts think Dallas got the better of it. I think Dallas signs a veteran FS - OJ Otogwe, if he signs his tender or maybe waits for June 1st for St Louis to cut him outright (he could be due like $7M at that point). They will trim fat - they can keep their younger players if they show value on special teams. Patrick Crayton is good as gone. Sam Hurd will stick for his value on special teams. Pat Watkins is the requisite special teams demon.

Denver: Josh McDaniels' fate is joined to Demaryius Thomas and Tim Tebow
Most impact: Hard to tell for the Broncos which player will the most impact because by now, it's McDaniels' team and the Broncos are now about team rather than individuals. I think the kid who will get on the field first is Eric Decker. Now the Broncos have 4 possession receivers. I like the signing of Jamal Williams to man the nose as it both strengthens the Broncos and weakens the Chargers but Williams has a lot of wear and tear on him at this point. Still, this is a significant upgrade for their defense.
Biggest risk: It's not so much taking Tebow in the first round that is a risk - I had him as a first rounder in my last mock draft, it's what McDaniels gave up for him. While most of those picks ended up being traded for other picks and become other players who will wash out, it was still a lot to give up for a player probably nobody else was going to take at that point. I would say a bigger risk is giving up Sheffler for practically nothing. Brandon Marshall had to go.
Best value: I like Syd'Quan Thompson from Cal. He's a Belichick kind of player that McDaniels is trying to acquire.
Moves they'll make before camp: They will bring in veterans to compete, add depth, and give character to New England West. Brian Dawkins worked out very well for them last year.

Detroit: the Lions will pick somewhere between 7th and 11th next year if there is a draft. I'm not saying are good, but they are out of the top five.
Most impact: Jahvid Best, if he can stay healthy. I'm not sold on Ndamkung Suh to be honest. I know he graded out insanely high but after Glenn Dorsey, I'm really skeptical of taking a defensive tackle in the top 10. Best adds speed and a home run threat not named Calvin Johnson. Throw in Tony Sheffler, Nate Burleson, and Rob Sims and don't look now but the Lions may have an offense. I like Rob Sims from Seattle to Detroit. Instant upgrade on the line.
Biggest risk: I think the biggest risk is Suh actually. Again, I am uncomfortable taking defensive tackles so highly. The quality of interior linemen in the NFL is far superior than at the NCAA level; in the pros, you get top-tier offensive tackles move inside because they don't have the athletic ability to dominate on the perimeter. McCoy, and other top defensive tackle prospects, are going to find it more difficult coming in as a rookie and disrupting interior offensive lines.
Best value: Fourth round pick Jason Fox, ORT, Miami. Long gone are the days when we'd talk about all the Miami guys in the first round. Long gone. More likely to get a guy from Miami of Ohio before you get a guy from the U. But Fox can come in and compete for roster spot and maybe even a starting position in a year or two; I think he's a little raw and needs work.
Moves they'll make before camp: They could stand to get better at linebacker. They need more DB help despite bringing in Chris Houston and drafting Amari Spivey. They could use more interior linemen. They need a lot; that's why they are picking somewhere between 7 and 11 next year and not in the top five.

Green Bay: Proving that small market teams can compete
Most impact: Hard to tell who'll have more of an impact; Green Bay has three rookies who could start away: Brian Bulaga (ORT), Mike Neal (NT), and Morgan Burnett (S). Neal doesn't have to start but he can rotate and spell Raji or give the defensive fronts some different looks.
Biggest risk: I've been trying to find a risk but I really can't find one. Not that I think Green Bay is airtight - they weren't aggressive but they didn't stand pat. They didn't sign vets to sign names. They didn't trade picks to move up and down the draft board (I don't mind that strategy but after a while, you have to use those picks to draft football players who will play football). The only risk I see is that they didn't do enough to upgrade their interior OL. Bulaga will help a lot and is a building block for the future. However, they better buy a lot of duct tape to keep the remaining OL intact until they get more help. Giving Chad Clifton 3 years with $7.5M guaranteed is a lot for a guy they let walk and test the free agent waters.
Best value: Bulaga at 23rd overall is a prime candidate for best value.
Moves they'll make before camp: the Packers need help in the running game. I don't like the depth they have behind Grant, and I don't even like Grant all that much. Not sure if there is anyone else left to sign or bring in at this point, but they should look at their depth. Likely their offensive linemen are safe but with Bulaga probably starting, maybe inside at first then kicking outside, one of their OL will likely be cut - Allen Barbre, Josh Sitton, Jason Spitz - it's time to fish or cut bait on these guys. When you hear about the failures of the Packers line, it usually revolves around Tauscher getting old, Clifton getting old and getting hurt, and a combination of Barbre, Colledge, Sitton, and Spitz blowing blocks.

Houston: There is a reason why they are an 8-win team and not in the playoffs
Most impact: Ben Tate, RB, Auburn. I think he adds some balance and pop to the running game. Kareem Jackson was over-drafted, just like some said he would be, because he's the top corner in a Nick Saban defense.
Biggest risk: They didn't do much to move ahead of the pack. They are competing for a wild card spot and I'm not convinced they did much to move ahead of the perennial wild card contenders. The biggest single risk is that Kareem Jackson can step in an replace Dunta Robinson. He might over time, but they'll miss Robinson on that defense.
Best value: The Dorrin Dickerson pick puzzled me when they had Owen Daniels but also Nick Driesen who filled in for Owens after his knee injury. Dickerson fell to the 7th round and is probably good value, but the bottom line is that he fell for a reason. I like LB Darryl Sharpton in the 4th even though he is a 2-down LB, G Shelley Smith in the 6th, and undrafted free agent OT Adam Ulatowski from Texas; he'll land on the practice squad and be a guard.
Moves they'll make before camp: They will add a veteran defensive back before camp. They will sign a veteran interior offensive lineman.

Indianapolis: Not what I would've done, but then again, I'm no Bill Polian
Most impact: Jerry Hughes will get on the field and he has the measurables to make an instant impact. Strong, quick, smart, non-stop motor, intense player. He's not the pick I would've made if I was Polian - I would've gone for Roger Saffold at the end of the first round. Yes, he might be only an ORT but to me, the reason the Colts lost the Super Bowl is that they couldn't give Manning time and all year long, they couldn't dominate the line of scrimmage. Saffold might be an ORT because of his arm length but he'll start for years to come. But that's why Bill Polian is who is he is - he took an impact player, in my opinion, the 2nd best pass rusher behind Brandon Graham. Polian probably thought that the Super Bowl is much closer if Dwight Freeney was sitting in the Saints' backfield eating wings and queso and smacking Drew Brees around. The Colts really were not the same team without him.
Biggest risk: Passing on Roger Saffold. Their OL is bordering on pitiful. Jeff Saturday is a good technician but he's on the verge of living off his reputation. Adam Terry will help.
Best value: Like the Packers, the Colts found value all over the place. Pat Angerer will bolster the LB corps and compete for playing time right off the bat. Kevin Thomas from USC can be a player. I like Kavell Conner from Clemson in the 6th round and Ray Fisher from Indiana might be a steal.
Moves they'll make before camp: Hard to say what the Colts will do. I think they need OL help - most teams, I think they need OL help. But for all their DL investments, they are still only as good as Freeney is healthy.

Jacksonville: Not really sure what they are doing
Most impact: It's hard to find a rookie or first year player that's going to have the most impact. I like Tyson Alualu quite a bit, but the problem with evaluating defensive linemen in the NFL draft is the level of competition they have to study on tape. Alualu has a nonstop motor but what does that mean when teams will run draws and counters that take advantage of his non-stop motor? Kirk Morrison, whom they picked up in a trade from Oakland will make an immediate and positive impact on the team. Freddy Keiaho from the Colts will also get a starting job and the LB are now a strong and deep group by adding those two. Gene Smith is interesting - his moves seem to be for the long-term but I don't know that the Jags are really in long-term mode when you look at their stadium every week.
Biggest risk: No offensive weapons to go along with Pocket Hercules. They are a streaky team - when they are hot, their cast of whodats on offensive seem like a bunch of whirling dervishes picking up chunks of yards: #11 for 20 yards . . who's that? #33 for an 8 yard carry. #19 for 18 yards on an end-around, etc.
Best value: Austen Lane in the 5th round is a nice value but with about 12 defensive ends on the roster, he's kind of lost in the shuffle. RB Deji Karim from Southern Illinois is another power dwarf running back (5'8" 3/4, 210 lbs) to go with MoJo D and Rashad Jennings. They also signed Kyle Bosworth, nephew of the Boz, as an undrafted free agent. Not quite the media attention from drafting the Tebeow, but . . .
Moves they'll make before camp: Luke McCown will force the issue at QB. McCown won't unseat Garrard, but he'll sling it around enough to cause a QB controversy.

Kansas City: Maybe this year they get it back on track, if Todd Haley can stop yelling and cursing at his players
Most impact: Perhaps the biggest no-brainer of my who lack of brain effort to recap the draft and free agent activity to date, Eric Berry. A few years ago, Glenn Dorsey was a can't miss prospect for Kansas City; now, it's Eric Berry. Wait . . . Scott Pioli better get this one right, otherwise Flyover New England might be overrun by disgruntled Chiefs fans.

Biggest risk: The '10 draft class looks good on paper: Dexter McCluster will be a playmaker to complement Jamaal Charles, Thomas Jones, and Dwayne Bowe. Javier Arenas will start in the defensive backfield with Berry. Jon Asamoah should compete for a starting job at G. Tony Moeaki should likewise compete for a starting job at TE; heck, I could probably get some reps at TE for the Chefs. The Chiefs also signed Colts castoff Ryan Lilja and former Broncos C Casey Weigmann. Both guys couldn't hack it on their former teams and were replaced or deemed expendable because they were older veterans. The Chiefs passed on taking a top OLT prospect because they believe Branden Albert can be that guy - I think he can, too, and are bringing in veterans to compete and possibly start. I'm not a big proponent of retooled OL paying immediate dividends.
Best value: Eric Berry might be the most pro-ready player in the draft and to take him at 5th overall is good value. Javier Arenas with the 50th overall pick was nice value though he went where he probably should've. Jon Asamoah in the 3rd at 68th overall likewise showed good value. I really like the move of bringing in untendered WR/ST Jehreme Urban. He'll get significant reps and is an upgrade at WR for them plus he's a hard-nosed ST. The Chefs need all the hard-nosed players they can get. They need a little more nuance from their coach and less hard-nosed though. Though, Haley is what he is.
Moves they'll make before camp: There will be a lot of roster shuffling. I wouldn't be surprised to see more Peterson-Edwards holdovers cut.

Miami: the Dolphins are either going to progress or start to unravel; if they unravel, Parcells will jump ship
Most impact: Brandon Marshall. Can't believe they got him for two second rounders; amazing. I'm concerned about this character issue that Parcells claims he wants in his players - if Marshall was a problem in Denver, do you think he's going to suddenly buckle up his chinstrap and transform into the second coming of Jerry Rice? Look, I don't really care about this talk about "character" - really, all that means is that a "character" guy puts football first and foremost in his life. He's not changing flat tires of moms in minivans or playing dominoes at the old folks' home - he can run over people on the way to work so long as he's a locker room fiend, sleeps in his car in the parking lot the night before OTAs start, and is there on his days off to watch film. Marshall is immature but he's not a borderline psycho like Richie Incognito, your new starting ORG in Miami. Karlos Dansby was the big free agent signing but this isn't the NFC West and he'll look a little out of place going against the Jets and Patriots for 4 games a year.
Biggest risk: Brandon Marshall. He's going to be a big addition to this team but what is his real value going to be? I have to think that Darrelle Revis will shut him down twice and Belichick will game plan for him and the Bills, though deplorable, do have good corners. The real value is, as we all know, is that his presence will take pressure off the running game which really is Miami's strength.
Best value: I think any talk of real value was kind of tanked when they brilliantly traded down to 28th and took Jared Odrick. I really like him as a 5T and he will fit in beautifully in Miami's defensive line rotation but DE wasn't really a need. I do like Koa Misi as a pass-rushing OLB. They got some production last year from CFL standout Cameron Wake and they will need more to replace Peezy.
Moves they'll make before camp: They need more receivers to go with Marshall; I like Hartline and Bess but they aren't really weapons.

Sizing up Team Movements --- Part 1

The NFL season is almost back in full swing.  The draft is over, the first wave of undrafted free agent signings is complete, and teams have held their first minicamps.  Standby for the OTAs and other minicamps that will follow in the next few months. 

The post-draft grades have been handed out and pundits and analysts vary in their grading system.  Some look at just the players taken, some look at where players where taken, some look at needs filled, some look at overall talent.  As Football Outsiders noted, you really can't look at a draft class' real value for at least 3 years, sometimes maybe longer.

Before I get into the first trenchant of team reviews, I felt like a hater commenting on Myron Rolle after my last post.  Let me contrast him to a player I'm pulling for but who likely won't make his team - Blair White, undrafted free agent, Indianapolis Colts.  White not only graduated from Michigan State (ok, not too hard) but has already been accepted into dental school.  Little Shop of Horror jokes aside, White's already made it.  He's going to give it a shot with the Colts.  He may not have a chance with the talent-laden Colts who got plenty of production from Austin Collie but get back Anthony Gonzalez and have expectations for young WR Sam Giguere.  But White walked onto Michigan State and I think eventually earned a scholarship and was team captain.  He lead the Spartans in receiving two years in a row and also has experience as a ST gunner.  In fact if he makes the team, it'll be because of his work ethic and ST contributions.  This is a story the NFL pundits and reporters should tell you about instead of Tebows, Myron Rolles, and Dezes.  But they won't because not too many people want to read about a kid like Blair White.  They'd much rather read about controversies and have heroes and heels created for them by journalists. 

In the next few posts, I'll assess where I think all 32 teams are for the coming year.  What move will have the most impact, the biggest risk they have assumed, what moves have the best value, and what movements they'll make going into OTAs and eventually camps. 

Arizona: Arizona didn't do enough to keep pace with the Niners and may have even ceded ground to the Seahawks. 
Most impact: Gutting their defense.  Antrel Rolle never lived up to the hype at corner but was somewhat reliable at safety.  The trend of Pittsburgh free agents not playing like Steelers when they leave Pittsburgh continued with Bryant McFadden, who was traded back to Pittsburgh in the offeason.  Lastly, Karlos Dansby was the premiere defensive player this offseason (not Julius Peppers) and he got paid by Miami.  They drafted Dan Williams who represents good value but I have a Gabe Watson feeling and Daryl Washington also represents good value at 47th overall.  O'Brien Schofield was a big reach in the 4th round as he rehabs his knees. 
Biggest risk: Matt Leinart and Derek Anderson are your QBs.  Big defensive free agent acquisitions are Kerry Rhodes and Paris Lenon.  Not such which pair is the biggest risk.  Leinart can play but he's not Kurt Warner.  They also didn't do much to replace Anquan Boldin and will rely on Steve Breaston to step up. 
Best value: Max Hall, UDFA QB from BYU, is a good kid to bring in.  Likely he will end up on the practice squad of some team but he gives some depth to the position.  John Skelton, the first player from Fordham to be drafted since the Gemini program (wild guess), will not be ready in '10 to back up. 
Movements they'll make before camp: I expect them to sign a veteran wide receiver and QB for depth, experience, and leadership. 

Atlanta: Didn't do much to move up and contend with the Saints. 
Most impact: Since they didn't do too much in the offseason, bringing Texans CB Dunta Robinson is the best candidate.  While they won't supplant the Saints anytime soon, they needed add more quality depth to the defensive backfield.  We'll see what William Moore can do this year but they really needed to take a ballhawking safety in the second round.  They hope that Peria Jerry can come back and with '10 rookie Corey Peters (a nice pick at 83rd overall) and beef up the middle of the defense. 
Biggest risk: With all their moves, they still can't get to the quarterback.  If John Abraham doesn't get to Drew Brees, nobody on the Falcons defense will.  Seriously.  While the premium pass rushers were gone by the time they picked, this was their greatest need.  Tom Dmitroff took Sean Weatherspoon 19th overall and he's a WILL at best and likely not going to be rushing the passer all that much.  The problem with all this?  The longer the QB has to make his reads, the more pressure there will be on the DBs (who still aren't that good) and then all the defensive moves really don't matter too much. 
Best value: I'll make my first nod to Rick Gosselin (Dallas Morning News) - the Falcons signed TE Colin Peek, one of his top 300 college prospects as an undrafted free agent (UDFA). 
Movements they'll make before camp: Not really sure; they could shuffle their OL a little.  They need more and better bodies in the defensive backfield.  And of course they need pass rushing defensive ends. 

Baltimore: Ozzie Newsome isn't bulletproof (ok not a great analogy these days) but the Ravens are a deep and talented team and will win the North. 
Most impact: Anquan Boldin is the most popular pick for biggest impact.  Instant and big upgrade at receiver.  What's lost here though is the fact that for Boldin to be a real hero in Balmer, hon, Joe Flacco has to become a better QB.  Yeah, there is a lot of highlight tape of his laser arm rocketing balls all over the place, but there were a lot - a lot - of games where his stat lines were terrible because he was so wild.  Jim Zorn will get a chance to resuscitate his career and become a coordinator somewhere if he can get Flacco to the next level; Cam Cameron couldn't.  Of course Cam thought John Beck was an NFL-caliber starter. 

Biggest risk: the 2010 draft class.  That's what I mean when I say that Ozzie Newsome isn't bulletproof.  His a great drafter and a solid evaluator of talent.  But Terrance Cody will always look like that girl from Precious and is a couple of Domino pizzas away from eating himself out of the league.  Sergio Kindle looked great running around in his underwear at his pro day but look at his college body of work - it's not very impressive.  I was high on Kindle going into the draft because of his upside but his fall in the draft reminded me that kodak doesn't lie and he has a lot to learn before he contributes in the NFL. 
Best value: Dennis Pitta, TE, BYU, taken in the 4th round, should contribute by the first month of the season.  He's a good route runner with good short movement skills.  David Reed, taken in the 5th round, is a WR straight outta Utah who should add quality depth to the WR position, a traditional position of weakness with the Ravens.  Goose Gosselin likes Albert McClellan, DE, from Marshall, so so do I. 
Movements they'll make before camp: Not really sure - no real weaknesses.  Some veteran reserve DBs might not be back in '10.  Omar Gaither may not be traded - it's hard to move a guy when you make it clear you don't want him - so they should hold onto him as a quality backup. 

Buffalo: the 2010 Bills; or, the Case Against Revenue Sharing
Most impact: CJ Spiller.  He's electric but will be a total waste in Buffalo.  There is no threat of a passing game and no one to block for him.  I have no idea what the Bills are doing other than trying to bottom out so they have an argument for moving to Toronto.  They did make some moves to bolster their defensive line so maybe their theory is win by playing great defense and special teams.  Yeah, that seems to be a trend in the league these days. 
Biggest risk: It's a tie between not improving their OL and passing on Jimmy Clausen twice with their first two picks (9 and 41).  I'd have to go with passing on Clausen.  Say what you will about him but they need an upgrade at QB badly and he was it.  A lot of folks subscribe to the bus driver theory of QBs, but look at it this way - the QB is the only guy who handles the ball on every offensive play.  Yes the center snaps the ball but that's not the point.  The QB matters.  Brady, Manning, and Brees have reminded everybody of that.  That and all the pisspoor QB play in the league lately has, too. 
Best value: Levi Brown and Kyle Calloway in the 7th round.  Probably the best value picks all day.  Neither kid will step in immediately but I liked what they did at each position.  Brown was always a developmental prospect with good intangibles and base skills (like throwing the ball real hard, real far) and Calloway, a Big 10 starting OT, feel because of back problems and short arms.  Couldn't reach his back to rub it, I guess. 
Movements they'll make before camp: They should sign a free agent, veteran OLT to replace Jason Peters.  Otherwise, the offense is DOA.

Carolina : it doesn't look pretty so far, but if Clausen pans out, then all's well.  It still seems like John Fox wants to get fired or the Panthers management wants to have such a bad year that they have no choice but to fire Fox.
Most impact: If he starts, and he should beat out undrafted Matt Moore, then Jimmy Clausen make the team better.  I'm sure he'll have his lumps but somewhere in a bar that looks like it came from the Drew Carey show, Jake Delhomme is sitting with Oswald saying "they won't have me to kick around". 
Biggest risk:  Everette Brown has to step up and produce 10+ sacks.  The Panthers gave up two first rounders to take him and he's the answer to the question "why did you let Julius Peppers walk?"  They also let DT Maake Kemoeata go.  They kept HBO reality star Tank Tyler and Tyler Brayton who is a solid body on the front four.  The defense better produce next year or else Fox is gone.  He may be gone anyway.   They will miss Brad Hoover on the team; he might be one of the longest tenured Panthers. 
Best value: This might be a stretch, but I like Brandon LaFell as nice value with the 78th overall pick.  I liked him a little higher.  He might give Steve Smith some relief at some point this year.  Tony Pike in the 6th round is a also a nice pick-up; their future backup QB. 
Movements they'll make before camp: Look for some defensive movement to get depth and add quality.

Chicago: Not really sure what they are doing.  Still, they got some quality players with the few picks they had.
Most impact: All eyes will be on Julius Peppers.  He has his work cut out for him with quality tackles at Minnesota and quality/decent tackles at Green Bay.  He will feast on Matt Stafford.  Major Wright should come in and compete for playing time.  He's instinctive, but he does need to adjust to the pro game. 
Biggest risk: I think the whole team qualifies as the biggest risk.  They gave up too much to get Cutler and too much for Gaines Adams (RIP).  I can understand packaging picks for getting big name players but it's a risk. 
Best value: I like Corey Wotton in the 4th round, 109th overall.  I liked him more as a possible 5T, but he should help the defensive line quite a bit.  It seems to be a rare instance where Chicago got younger and got better at a position. 
Movements they'll make before camp: Who knows what 2011+ picks they'll trade away for the next big name. 
Cincinnatti: it's the remake of North Dallas 40. 
Most impact: Hard to tell.  I like a lot of their moves on paper.  Antonio Bryant, Matt Jones, Jordan Shipley, and Jermaine Gresham should bolster their receiving corps.  I also like Pacman Jones.  I liked him in Dallas - he was out of shape and didn't take his second chance seriously.  Now let's see what he does.  But they have Jonathan Joseph and Leon Hall - probably the most underrated cornerback duo in the league.  All Pacman has to do is play the nickel.  And make it rain.  Geno Atkins should bolster the DL.  Gibril Wilson will bring the thunder in the secondary; he records 80+ tackles it seems every year.  Makes you wonder if the Roy Williams Reclamation Project isn't over this summer. 
Biggest risk: Is Carson Palmer healthy?  He better be.  There are plenty of legit targets and he has to spread the love in the 'Natti.  The biggest risk in all seriousness is that these receivers 1) develop a rapport with Palmer by the 3rd preseason game; 2) accept, focus on, and perform their role on this team; and 3) these receivers who all have character concerns (except for Jordan Shipley and Gresham) keep it under lids for at least the first few months. 
Biggest value: Briscoe County Junior in the 6th round.  He might surprise a few people in camp and might make the team. 
Moves the team will make before camp: Roy L. Williams will be cut.

Cleveland: Holmgren makes his mark
Biggest impact: Chris Gocong and Scott Shanle.  I really don't know why but I think bringing in these two hard-nosed, try-hard, lunch pail ILB will add toughness, grit, and character to a defense that needs it.  Both can lead.  The Browns sorely lacked a leader last year.  Maybe they were afraid Shaun Rogers would hit them in the head with his helmet if they spoke up.  But there are good players on that defense - Dqwell Jackson is a tackling machine.  Matt Roth rebounded nicely out of the Tuna's doghouse or whatever a Tuna uses to humiliate a professional football player.  Monterrio Hardesty, their second 2nd round pick (59th overall) will make some noise as a rookie.  With Jerome Harrison and former college backfield mate James Davis the Browns should pound the ball.  They better with Jake Delhomme throwing ducks in windy Browns Stadium.  That could be really ugly in the winter months. 
Biggest risk: Passing on Jimmy Clausen for Colt McCoy.  Mike Holmgren knows food and he knows QB.  So I defer to his judgment.  But Coltt McCoy will not be a winning pro QB.  He's short, he lacks arm strength (biggest concern), and he isn't durable.  If Clausen is the real deal and McCoy isn't, then Holmgren's tenure in Cleveland will be marred. 
Best value: The team's two last draft picks in '10, Carlton Mitchell and Clifton Geathers, will compete in camp for jobs, adding some youthful vigor and excitement. 

Lastly- thanks Mom.  Happy Mother's Day. 

Sicko Signs with Cowboys After All

I got a good laugh out of this - Scott Sicko, the TE from New Hampshire who turned down signing with NFL teams as an UFA and said that he wanted to pursue an education and get his PhD in history and maybe be a college professor.  Now he's reconsidered and signed with the Cowboys today. 

I got a good laugh at first because probably the last thing this country needs is another PhD in a social science but really Peter King's Monday Morning QB article on this really put a sour taste in my mouth. King went on a little editorial monologue about more young people need to be like Sicko and pursue higher education than try out for the NFL. He called Myron Rolle (SS - FSU) "brilliant" because he was a Rhodes scholar (it was for something in health policy, not like he was splitting atoms). Being a Rhodes scholar doesn't make you smarter than your next honors student - it means that the selection committee likes you more than the others. Sort of like peer reviewed journals. Because you are published in one doesn't make you a better researcher or writer for that matter, it's that the selection committee found your article more in line with their views than the rest.

Remember the uproar in some media outlets when a scout asked Rolle if he felt bad for abandoning his teammates to take a year off in England.  And a lot of media analysts and pundits were talking about how a lot of football guys are "afraid" of a smart player.  There are a lot of smart players in the NFL.  Always have been.  Just like there are a lot of smart people in a lot of different professions.  What the media missed is that teams aren't afraid of a smart guy, they are afraid of another slow, in the box SS prospect. 

A real insulting question - one that the media should've drilled in on - was when pro personnel guy asked Dez Bryant if his mother was a prostitute.  That's out of bounds.  And unprofessional.  And PFT dot com is reporting today that the guy who asked that question is Dolphins' GM Jeff Ireland. 
Today ESPN Dallas reported that Sicko (which I hope for him is pronounced Sis-ko not Sick-o) signed with the Dallas Cowboys. He can put that UFA signing bonus as a down payment on his grad school tuition if he wants. He is an intruiging prospect with a nice size-speed ratio. He was pursued by many teams but chose Dallas over the Patriots in his own backyard. He's from New York by the way and not a New Englander in case anyone wondered.
 
The Cowboys already have some tough roster decisions to make - and I'm not talking about Roy Williams.  Their roster is talented and could get younger and have more upside if Jones is willing to cut bait on some '09 mistakes (Jason Williams and Brandon Williams) and vets who are ST,emergency backups, and JAGs (Just a Guy) on their OL: Steve Octavien, Clint Johnson, Montrae Holland, Pat McQuistan, and Cory Procter. 

Rookie minicamp is this weekend, and Dallas has many '09 first year players who were on the shelf with injuries: Stephen Hodge, Michael Hamlin, and Robert Brewster.

Round 1 in the Books

I have to admit I liked the prime time format. Kids were asleep, quiet in the house except for the blaring white noise machine to soothe the baby and keep me from listening to 4 hours of Rich Eisen.

I got 10 picks right: the first seven, then Davis to the Niners, Pouncey to the Steelers, and Gresham to the Bengals.

I think I should get extra credit for:

1. Correctly calling the Philly-San Fran 13/24 trade.
2. Tebow in the first round (but not Tebow before Clausen, so maybe it's a wash)

Surprised by:
1. New Orleans taking Patrick Robinson at the end of the first round. Tracy Porter, Malcolm Jenkins, and Patrick Robinson?
2. The Eagles trading up for Brandon Graham but giving up that many picks?
3. The Chargers giving up so much to move up for Ryan Mathews?
4. The Lions moving up for Jahvid Best. Nice complement back, but compelmenting what exactly?
5. Bill Belichick drafting yet another DB in the first round. I guess when you can't get to the quarterback, you better be able to cover.
6. Jerry Hughes to the Colts. Who am I to question Bill Polian, but maybe he sees Freeney getting hurt so much he needs another solid option?
7. WTF, Sergio Kindle? I had you as a top-15 talent.
8. Jimmy Clausen, dude, people look at character in the NFL when they look at QBs. Does he make his teammates better? Does he win? Can he lead? Clausen: no, no, and no.
9. Surprised somewhat by Brian Bulaga's freefall. Looking at him, he looks like a Russian hitman or bodyguard. But he really will be an ORT in the NFL - his arms are too small.
10. I read in some mock draft that somebody predicted that Kareem Jackson would be overdrafted because he was the best corner in a Nick Saban defense. Nick Saban is a good defensive mind and he covers his players' deficiencies.
11. What in the Sam Hill is up with all these dudes crying when they get picked? I hope they get hazed like heck in camp for that. It's the NFL not the Oscars. Come on.

Things I liked about the draft:
1. I like the Rolando McLain pick. He may have been overdrafted but what is really going to help the Raiders anyway until they have real management? McLain is a solid kid and a great football player and the best prospect in the draft. What could the Raiders realistically expect to achieve at 8th anyway? I think picks 5/6 through 10 are Death Valley for drafters.
2. I like what the Niners did. A lot. They are going to be in a position to lock down the division in a year or two depending on how fast their rookie OLmen can get on the field and play.
3. I like Josh McDaniels' stones to move down then accumulate picks to get the guys he wanted. He overpaid for Tebow but until we see what happens in the future, the picks are just picks. But he masterfully traded down and picked up Demaryus Thomas, the guy you'd think they wanted all along.
4. I like Trent Williams to the Skins. The right fit for the system and much more upside.
5. I like Belichick picking up picks despite compulsively picking up another overhyped DB.
6. I like the Phins moving down and getting their man. I think they would've been happy with Dan Williams but I really like Jared Odrick especially paired with Kendall Langford. Langford is a real sleeper of a DE for you 30 in '10.
7. I like Jerry refraining from trading up for Earl Thomas and hanging back and seeing what value would be there in the 20s. I like him giving up 29 spots (swapping picks with the Pats) in the 3rd to 4th round to get Dez Bryant. I am trying to tell myself that Dez will be ok at Valley Ranch - for all the stuff you've heard about him, he has no legal troubles and no wrap sheet. His family is a disaster but Jerry can give him a good environment in which to succeed. I like the upside it brings to the offense and it gives them a potential legitimate #1 WR talent-wise. It also puts the WR on notice.
8. I like Tyson Alualu but I don't like him at 10. They could've traded back and gotten him. Maybe they tried, who knows.
9. I like the stones on McDaniels for taking Tebow. Laugh all you want about Tebow but the kid is a winner and he will work hard as heck not just to win but to prove everybody wrong. (I forgot to mention this about Dez Bryant - he has motivation to prove everybody wrong) McDaniels with Thomas and Tebow is remaking the team in the Patriots' image: hard working, character guys who are team-first players.
10. I like the prime-time Thursday night format. Pleasently surprised, Roger.

Overall it was a good draft. Plenty of trades made it exciting.

Seahawks have to be happy

The Seahawks have to be happy; they've taken two of the top 10 players in the draft. Earl Thomas will help them quite a bit and he'll be magnified by the fact that, as the playmaker points out, the QB play in the NFC West isn't very good right now. Thomas gets to play centerfield for Alex Smith, Matt Leinart, and rookie Sam Bradford for six games.

Looking forward to a little Red River Rivalry Rematch with Earl Thomas versus Sam Bradford.

Broncos Should Do Well

Wow, the Broncos should be acquiring picks like crazy for this draft. Sliding down in the first round (not sure if they are still in it) and accumulating picks should give the Broncos plenty of opportunities to get some solid talent. Which is what they need after making some curious offseason moves.

And it looks like the Phins got the three picks for their first round pick that they wanted - but not from Dallas but the Chargers who gave up a lot to get Ryan Mathews.

The Eagles just traded up - waiting to see whom they take - they are also giving up a lot to move up to 13. Is it Earl Thomas or Brandon Graham?

Plastic Man is the GM of the Jacksonville Jaguars

Who knew that Plastic Man is the GM for the Jaguars? I love Tyson Alualu and thought he was a borderline first rounder . . . but 10th overall?

One reason why I like Mike Mayock so much - he had nothing but positive things to say about Alualu. He didn't criticize the reach of Gene Smith or even the questionable fit of Alualu for the Jags' defense.

I like Rolando McLain to the Raiders. Character guy, fits a need, and will stand tall for the Raider defense. We'll see if he's the anti-Jamarcus.

Lots of trades so far. I was wrong about that.

Very fast first round.

After hitting the first seven picks.

Revised Mock Draft

Not sure I'll get to this tomorrow before the draft, so here goes.

1. STL: Bradford, QB, Oklahoma
2. DET: Suh, DT, Nebraska
3. TB: McCoy, DT Oklahoma
4. WAS: Trent Williams, OT, Oklahoma
5. KC: Eric Berry, S, Tennessee
6. SEA: Russell Okung, OT, Oklahoma State
7. CLE: Joe Haden, CB, Florida
8. OAK: Bruce Campbell, OL, Maryland
9. BUF: Jimmy Clausen, QB, Notre Dame
10. JAC: Derrick Morgan, DE, Georgia Tech
11. DEN: Rolando McLain, ILB, Alabama
12. MIA: Brandon Graham, OLB, Michigan
13. PHI (from SF): Earl Thomas, S, Texas
14. SEA: CJ Spiller, RB, Clemson
15. NYG: Sean Weatherspoon, LB, Missouri
16. TEN: Sergio Kindle, DE, Texas
17. SF: Anthony Davis, OL, Rutgers
18. PIT: Maurkice Pouncey, C/G, Florida
19. ATL: Jason Paul-Pierre, De, South Florida
20. HOU: Ryan Mathews, RB, Fresno State
21. CIN: Jermaine Gresham, TE, Oklahoma
22. NE: Jerry Hughes, OLB, Texas Christian
23. GB: Mike Iupati, Idaho
24. SF: Jared Odrick, DE, Penn State
25. BAL: Dan Williams, DT, Tennessee
26. ARI: Dez Bryant, WR, His Couch
27. DAL: Nate Allen, S, South Florida
28. SD: Kyle Wislon, CB, Boise State
29. NYJ: Tyson Alualu, DE, California
30. MIN: Tim Tebow, QB/HB/FB/TE, Florida
31. IND: Brian Price, DT, UCLA
32. NO: Daryl Washington, OLB Texas Christian

Lito Sheppard to the Vikes - free agents affect draft strategies

Today the Vikes signed Lito Sheppard from the Jets. Sheppard didn't perform like the Jets expected and they traded for Antonio Cromartie. I had the Vikes taking a corner in the first round but signing Sheppard signals that the Vikes won't take a corner in the first round. It would be unusual to sign a corner to be a nickelback and draft a player you expect to start.

Ok, so it's been a while since I've posted. It's too hard to keep up a routine blog and have any sort of meaningful activity in life. And it's hard to compete with tweets and chirps; even the Library of Congress has started noting these blurbs as forms of communication worth cataloging.

But if there is one thing that gets the armchair general in all of us up in arms, it's the NFL draft.

Even with Roger Goodell - whom I'm convinced with each passing day is perhaps one of the worst forces that could happen in the National Football League - splitting up the draft over three days in order to garner more money for the league, it'll still have drama and excitement and plenty of gnashing and grinding of teeth as well as rejoicing over the paper champions that rule the NFL under the next fall.

The draft is a great time to think through the talent evaluation process for NFL teams and realize what the draft is really about: talent, upside, and value. Those three parameters are the Clausewitzian trinity of NFL personnel management: getting the right mix of talent and potential - you don't want a guy who's already peaked - at the right point in the draft. You don't want to take a guy at 2o you could've gotten at 40. Sometimes it's hard and the personnel department has to make a judgment call, that reaching for a guy is worth the cost in the long run.

So without further banty, here is my first cut at what I think will happen. Not what I would do if I were the GM or my own draft board.

1. STL: Sam Bradford, QB, OU With so many gaps you could go any number of directions with the #1 overall pick. I wasn't enamored with Bradford coming out of the combine but watching his pro day workout and looking over his stats and college career, it's hard to not like him at least as the best in an undistinguished QB litter. They could trade but what else is there for the Rams to take at this position at the top of the second? Colt McCoy has a weak arm. They could play chicken at take somebody like Tony Pike at the top of the 3rd or even gamble and wait for the 4th. They have Fritz Shurmur in STL to coach their QB so conceivably any WCO-type QB could fit.

2. DET: Ndamukong Suh, DT, Nebraska This is the first wild card of the draft. Martin Mayhew has a lot of good sound bytes - he sounds like he should be a GM, but you look at some of his personnel decisions, and you kinda wonder. I would take Okung or even Trent Williams at this point - they invested their big money in Matthew Stafford last year and every big hit from the blindside is about $50K to $100K when you consider that each hit might be the hit that knocks him out of action. Also Jeff Backus is out of position at OLT and taking Okung solves two needs - it allows them to move Backus to OLG and gets a cornerstone OLT. Lastly - I am VERY skeptical of taking a DT so highly in the first round. Glenn Dorsey comes to mind.

3. TB: Gerald McCoy, DT, OU See comment on Suh; I don't like taking DT this highly. Warren Sapp might've been the interior DL taken this highly who's played at an All Pro level. Richard Seymour has made an impact taken at 6 overall, but he's made his hay at DE. Casey Hampton was taken at 19th. Haloti Ngata was taken at 12th. Vince Wilfork was taken at 21st. It's tough for interior DL to live up to the hype when they are taken in the top 10. It's hard to make an impact when they don't make many tackles, aren't looked to for sacks. This is why a lot of teams draft highly - they take the guys they should take rather than look for the guy who is the best football player who will make the most plays for them. Not saying I'd pass on McCoy - he seems like a good kid and would fill a need - but there is a lot of pressure to produce for a guy who never is near the football except before the snap ere this draft be labled a bust for the Bucs.

4. WAS: Russel Okung, OLT, Ok State Tough call here. The Skins have less than a handful of picks and given the status of their roster they could stand to trade down and accumulate more picks. Taking a fine OLT like Okung would shore up the investment of their 2nd round pick (Donny Mac) but to be honest, Donny Mac kind obviates the need for a stable OL by virtue of his playmaking ability - he can move around and get out of the pocket. The Skins have signaled their willingness to trade out of the 4th pick - saying they are open to drafting a QB - signals anybody who wants either Eric Berry really bad (Philadelphia?) or Jimmy Clausen (Minnesota?) can make their best offer. Philly has the most ammo to move up - actually New England might have more picks - but I don't see anybody moving up to take Bradford. And somehow if Bradford makes it to 4, who says Shanny doesn't take him?

5. KC: Eric Berry, S, Tennessee Some folks have Bulaga going here. I don't see it. One, Scott Pioli picks defensive guys in the first round. Two, Bulaga has really short arms for an OLT prospect (32 or 33 inches). Three, do you really move Branden Albert from OLT to ORT and insert a rookie as your starter. Four, though Iowa "has turned out some quality OL" under OL coach Kirk Ferentz, you say Brian Bulaga, I say Robert Gallery. Berry is probably the highest impact guy in this draft, certainly in the top 3 in that discussion. The Chefs are in a world of hurt but putting Berry back there would help. I never understood why they cut Bernard Pollard - he certainly made Matt Cassel a rich, rich man and he had an impact on Scott Pioli's career too.

6. SEA: CJ Spiller, RB, Clemson A lot of folks have Trent Williams going here. Williams has the physical traits of the proverbial prototype OLT. Extremely long arms. Very tall. Good feet. But he's a little immature. The first round of the draft is about upside. Every blue chip kid is big, strong, and fast. The trick is finding kids who can still fill out their potential; finding kids who can still grow in skill and character as opposed to those who've achieved all they are going to achieve and hit their ceiling against NCAA talent. And in the top 10, it's about finding playmakers. If you are going to take an OLT, get the best one. Or get one who is going to be one of the best, given time. That failing, get guys who are going to make plays. Preferably big plays. CJ Spiller is one of those guys. He is small but he plays big. He needs space but he can create. And when he gets some space, he is dangerous. The Seahawks desperately, desperately need playmakers. Hells bells they just traded a third rounder for a 3rd string QB who strongly resembles Billy Ray Cyrus. Spiller will need to develop - few backs make the transition to the pro game seamlessly. But has potential and is explosive. The right combo.

7. CLE: Joe Haden, CB, Florida Mike Holmgren could take Casey um Jimmy Clausen, I would (Jimmy, not Casey). But he may go with Colt McCoy in the 2nd. The Browns need receiving help - maybe they go Dez Bryant. He should be taken here, such is his talent. But he's immature, forgetful, and irresponsible. Not the kind of pick Mike Holmgren wants to put on his legacy. Instead he will go with a safe pick - Joe Haden. The Browns need help all over the place - receiver, quarterback, defensive line. But there aren't any DL for the Mangina 30 front here at 7. Rolando McLain would be a nice pick here - a playmaker and team leader, both of which the Browns need. But the defensive backfield is one of many needs the Browns have.

8. OAK: Taylor Mays, S, USC A lot of people have Bruce Campbell here and he may be taken. But methinks Al sees Taylor Mays and thinks Ronnie Lott. Mays will hit you like a ton of bricks. If he gets the right angle on you. If he knows where the ball is. Mays will, mark my words, turn into a LB. Also I want somebody else to take Mays because I am afraid Jerry Jones will.
9. BUF: Jimmy Clausen, QB, Notre Dame Again the top 10 is about playmakers and upside and Clausen is/has both. I have reservations about his leadership and overall skill set - he should've won more games than he did as a starter. He should've been more of a leader than rumors say he is. But he has the arm. He has the look. He can get people in Buffalo excited about the QB position again. The Bills need OL help and could go Trent Williams here. They need DL help and Derrick Morgan would be a good fit. They need LB but the middle is full with the Poz and Rolando McLain would be overkill. Plus they could get a good WLB prospect at the top of the second. Brian Bulaga would be a good pick but to paraphrase Ricky Watters, "for who, for what?" would he block - Ryan Fitzpatrick, Trent Edwards, Marshawn Lynch, and Fred Jackson? Bulaga could block his guy into Lake Ontario and Fitzpatrick would throw a floater into double coverage, Trent Edwards would dump off to a back after making his reads, 3 times, Marshawn Lynch would be found with both a loaded 9mm and a joint under his pads, and Fred Jackson will pick up 122 total yards in a 27-9 loss. Turn the page and start anew with Casey er Jimmy.

10. JAC: Derrick Morgan, DE, Georgia Tech Morgan is a top ten talent. His motor doesn't stop. He's not the best pass rusher - he doesn't have a complete repetoire. Even though they signed Kampmann and it seems like they have drafted 8 defensive ends in the past 2 years, they shouldn't pass up Morgan. Just as the first round is about upside, the NFL is about 2 things now: picking up big chunks of yard most done easily in the passing game and getting to the QB and disrupting the opponent's offensive rhythm. You can never have enough pass rushers in today's NFL.

11. DEN: Rolando McLain, LB, Alabama Some mock drafts have Dez Bryant going here, but come on, if Josh Daniels traded Brandon Marshall because he was immature, why would they draft Dez Bryant? Plus, does anyone realize the kind of headache it's going to be to deal with Dez's agent while listening to Deion Sanders harp on TV in his cacaphonous voice: "pay the man. Pay the man. Pay the man". Because Dez Bryant is going to demand to be paid like the first receiver. Which he will be. But outside the top 10. Maybe even the top 15. If McDaniels is serious about building a team of character, then he will go with McLain. Plus ILB is a big need for the Broncos defense.

12. MIA: Sergio Kindle, OLB, Texas Bill Parcells got real lucky around this spot in 2005 when he took Demarcus Ware, at 11 I think. The Dolphins could go with Dez Bryant here, but man, a team with Marhsall and Dez Bryant? Wow. Again the NFL is all about getting to the QB. Some people like Kindle more than Orakpo. I'm not that enamored with Kindle but then again I wasn't with Orakpo last year either. Miami really needs pass rushers and guys who can play in the 30 front. Kindle is the best of that bunch.

13. SF: Trent Williams, OLT, Oklahoma How did he fall this far? Al Davis is crazy (Lord rest his soul, though that has already been pledged to someone else in exchange for some help/revenge against Pete Rozell) and teams 9 through 12 already have their franchise OLT. Williams falls this low because of concerns about his maturity and work ethic. What does it really mean to say you have a "work ethic" when you are a pro athlete? I mean, don't you just work out and play a sport all day or something? Seriously though there are concerns about Williams willingness to stay in top shape, to work hard to be the best, and his mental commitment to the game. Samurai Mike probably can help Trent Williams be serious about football. Plus this move helps the Niners address shortfalls on their OL already - Joe Staley can move to ORT as he is a little overmatched at OLT.

14. SEA: Brian Bulaga, OLT, Iowa The strategy of passing on a top OLT to take Spiller at 6th makes sense now assuming no team trades up to take one of them. This is truly a deep draft at OLT. Seattle needs help at OLT especially since Walter Jones is retiring.
15. NYG: Sean Weatherspoon This is another wildcard and an example of how it's tough to make need match up with available talent. The Giants need help at LB badly. They could use another running back. OL depth especially inside is needed. However at this point, Earl Thomas is the best player available and the Giants signed just about every safety available in free agency. It would be a waste of time and money to draft Thomas and let him sit while the free agents play out their first years. It's a little early to draft Mike Iupati. They don't need a Center with one of the more reliable ones in Shaun O'Hara. Ryan Mathews would be an intruiging pick and worth it, I think. Jermaine Gresham is a good option here but it's almost getting to the point where they have too many receiving targets and Gresham isn't much of an inline blocker. Yes they could split him with Boss and using two TE is a trend in the leauge now, but it doesn't seem plausible under Kevin Gilbride. They could wait for a second-tier MLB prospect in the second round but it might be too dicey of a proposition. One player they might take is Sean Weatherspoon. Reports are abounding now about his selfish attitude but he's talented and play the WLB too. I don't envy Jerry Reese. This isn't an easy pick.

16. TEN: Jason Paul-Pierre, DE, USF Paul-Pierre may go earlier than this but I don't think he's really a solid pro prospect as a DE; I'm not convinced he has enough moves to be a consistent pass rusher nor is he physical to play the run. But the Titans are desperate for a pass rushing DE and Paul-Pierre has the upside to warrant a pick here. Brandon Graham seems like a good pick here too - undersized DE for a 40 front; high motor and great work ethic. He seems to fit the Jeff Fisher mold.

17. PHI (from SF): Earl Thomas, S, Texas Taking a stab at projecting the first trade. Why the Niners? They have 2 first rounders. Why the Eagles? They have 10 picks and like their roster enough to not pick 10 guys and have 10 position battles in camp. They have the ammo to move up. They need a safety and Thomas is the second-best S in the draft which isn't a knock against him. Philly can give up one of their 2nd rounders or both or a 2nd rounder and late round pick and a 2nd rounder in 2011.

18. PIT: Maurkice Pouncey, C, Florida Pouncey is the best interior OL. Many have Iupati ranked higher but Pouncey is more pro-ready. Pouncey can also play OG in addition to C. Iupati can also kick out to ORT, let it be said.
19. ATL: Brandon Graham, DE, Michigan Tom Dmitroff doesn't pull punches; he said he drafts for need. At this spot, Jermaine Gresham seems to be the most valuable pick. But, ATL received zero/little production from its DL and was abysmal in sacks. Graham would be a good fit and fill a need.

20. Hou: Ryan Mathews, RB, Fresno State Houston's running game was awful last year and many folks are saying it wasn't all the OL's fault. Owning Steve Slaton in one fantasy league, I have to agree. Mathews is a bellcow of a back but let it be said that he did have his durability concerns at Fresno State.

21. CIN: Dez Bryant, WR, Sitting on His Couch This is a bit of a stretch but Dez's freefall has to stop and why not with the Bengals? They could go Jermaine Gresham here but Dez is too enticing of a prospect to pass up. And lately under Marv Lewis, they have an Island of Misfit Toys look about them so why not? It works on so many levels.

22. NE: Jermaine Gresham, TE, Oklahoma Belichick goes with the best player that fits his scheme. Gresham will help Brady and they need pass catchers at this point as there is no timetable for Welker anytime soon. Belichick could get value out of Iupati but the Jets and the Phins have put pressure on the Pats whether anyone admits it or not. One solution would be to go defense, which was a weak spot at times when Belichick lacked the players to fit his pressure-focused schemes. Another solution which is unconventional but fits Belichick is to put good money after good - give Brady another target. A good offense is a good defense at times.

23. GB: Anthony Davis, OL, Rutgers When did Rutgers turn into an NFL factory with consecutive years with 1st round picks? Davis has questionable work ethic but if he didn't he wouldn't an offensive tackle prospect drafted in the 20s labled as "OL" or with his scouting report reading "may find a home on the inside". Still, Davis gives the Pack flexibility to play multiple positions and perhaps may emerge as the starting OT in a year or two; they still have Jarmon Meredith from South Carolina whom they took in the middle rounds in '09. An intruiging pick here might be Jahvid Best - he might be a reach but he also might be a nice role player as a rookie, spelling Ryan Grant and adding a big play threat to the offense and take some pressure off Aaron Rodgers.

24. SF: Mike Iupati, OG, Idaho The Niners are able to trade down and still get their man. Samurai Mike wants to run the ball. He needs to run the ball, literally, because it means that Alex Smith isn't throwing it as much. Iupati is still raw - word is, he holds all the time, on every play. But his mentality fits perfectly with what Singletary wants to do with the team - smash the division in the mouth and take the title back to the Bay.

25. BAL: Dan Williams, DT, Tennessee Williams is the third best DT in the draft but that isn't a slight given that 1 and 3 are Suh and McCoy. Williams will augment a hardworking and often times overachieving Ravens DL. Haloti Ngata is the most talented player and the Ravens defense was at its heyday when they have two massive, disruptive men in the middle.

26. ARI: Demaryius Thomas, WR, Georgia Tech I was down on this guy after the combine - he ran an uninspiring 3 cone drill and showed shaky hands. He has a propensity for drops. But he had a nice private workout just before the draft and the Cardinals need someone to replace Anquan Boldin.

27. DAL: Nate Allen, S, South Florida I would like a lineman here like Vladimir Ducasse or even Charles Brown (Cowboys fans should be wary odf USC left tackles) but Jerry Jones has never drafted an OL in the first round and I doubt he will start now. I hope to high heaven that he doesn't draft Taylor Mays who will be available. Dallas needs a FS prospect and Nate Allen is the rangy center fielder type that would work in Phillips' defense. They could go OL here and try and go for Morgan Burnett in the second round. And Jerry could always trade out of this spot, too.

28. SD: Patrick Robinson, CB, Florida State The Chargers could go with a defensive end like Jared Odrick here. But trading Antonio Cromartie to the Jets leaves a big hole in their secondary. Robinson has the same build, but AJ Smith took Antoine Cason who is might mite compared to Cromartie in the early rounds a few years back. If I was AJ Smith, I would've taken Beanie Wells at 15 last year instead of Larry English; Beanie Wells in 2010 would be a nice answer to their backfield mess than English, who is still trying to crack the starting lineup.

29. NYJ: Jared Odrick, DE, Penn State The Jets don't need much but they should make every pick count - they are the paper offseason champs this year. If they are going to seriously challenge the Pats and guard their rear from the surging Dolphins who could make some noise and challenge for a wild card spot this year. Odrick would add some depth to the DL and also give them flexibility; he won't seriously spell Kris Jenkins (but odds are Jenkins will miss time with some injury this year) but he will give Rex Luthor some options.

30. MIN: Kareem Jackson, DB, Alabama Minnesota's defense was never the same once Antoine Winfield hurt his foot. They could use interior OL help - Vladimir Ducasse is a good prospect at this slot and could be developed and brought along in a year or two to start.

31. IND: Charles Brown, OLT/ORT , Southern California I never know what Bill Polian does with the Colts in the first round. They could take Brian Price in an effort to shore up their weak undersized defensive line. Polian said in the offseason he was disappointed in his OL, felt they let the team down. Getting a prospect like Brown will shore up their OL.

32. NO: Everson Griffen, DE, Southern California The world champions are an embarrassment of riches on offense and an aggressive risky bunch on defense. Where do they need to improve? The defensive line. As the Saints know well, teams have a better chance of winning when they can disrupt their opponent's timing on offense. I don't like Everson Griffen but he's a luxury that the world champion can afford to take at 32. I also like Jerry Hughes here. Some people have him as a 30 look, rush OLB; I think he's too short to man up at OLB. Hughes would be be served to play WLB in a 40 defense. NO needs some linebacker help desperately; they've been playing with 66 percent of the Cowboys' '05 LB corps (Shanle and Fujita).

I’ll try and get another post up here before the draft. Stay tuned.