Sizing Up Team Movements --- Part 2

Dallas: Jerry tries to recoup lost ground from the '09 draft, may not have added enough talent for the long-term
Most impact: I don't see any rookie from the '10 class as having any signifcant impact at this point. It's too soon to tell. If you are counting on big things from Dez Bryant, Dallas would be lucky if he learned the playbook and ran good enough routes to get on the field as the 4th receiver consistently by November. I like Sean Lee but I need to see if knees hold up. Mentally, he's NFL-ready.
Biggest risk: Not getting any impact out of the '09 or '10 class. The division is more competitive with Mike Shanahan and Donovan McNabb in Washington. The Eagles are reloading. The Giants have given Dallas fits since the '08 Divisional Playoff game. In '09, Jerry went with quantity over quality. In '10, Jerry went quality. He might get something out of nothing if any of his '09 draftees show up - linebackers Jason Williams, Brandon Williams, Victor Butler, and Stephen Hodge were all injured in '09.
Best value: Akwazi Owuzu-Ansah was a pre-draft fave, but he has a should injury and might end up on the PuP list. The Ansah might end up being a free safety in a few years if he can adjust to life outside the Pennsylvanie State Athletic Conference. I like a lot of their undrafted free agent class: Mike Tepper (OT - Cal); Barry Church (S- Toledo); Lonyae Miller (RB - Fresno State) and Lorenzo Washington (DE - Alabama). Dallas is very deep along the DL, and might be able to sneak Tepper, Miller, Washington the practice squad. I would like to see Chris Gronkowski (yes, Rob's brother, there are a gang of Gronkowskis in professional football now) make the team in some capacity.  More Gronkowskis the better. 
Moves they'll make before camp: Well, they solved one problem by trading Bobby Carpenter for Alex Barron. I think the trade favored St Louis, but several scouts think Dallas got the better of it. I think Dallas signs a veteran FS - OJ Otogwe, if he signs his tender or maybe waits for June 1st for St Louis to cut him outright (he could be due like $7M at that point). They will trim fat - they can keep their younger players if they show value on special teams. Patrick Crayton is good as gone. Sam Hurd will stick for his value on special teams. Pat Watkins is the requisite special teams demon.

Denver: Josh McDaniels' fate is joined to Demaryius Thomas and Tim Tebow
Most impact: Hard to tell for the Broncos which player will the most impact because by now, it's McDaniels' team and the Broncos are now about team rather than individuals. I think the kid who will get on the field first is Eric Decker. Now the Broncos have 4 possession receivers. I like the signing of Jamal Williams to man the nose as it both strengthens the Broncos and weakens the Chargers but Williams has a lot of wear and tear on him at this point. Still, this is a significant upgrade for their defense.
Biggest risk: It's not so much taking Tebow in the first round that is a risk - I had him as a first rounder in my last mock draft, it's what McDaniels gave up for him. While most of those picks ended up being traded for other picks and become other players who will wash out, it was still a lot to give up for a player probably nobody else was going to take at that point. I would say a bigger risk is giving up Sheffler for practically nothing. Brandon Marshall had to go.
Best value: I like Syd'Quan Thompson from Cal. He's a Belichick kind of player that McDaniels is trying to acquire.
Moves they'll make before camp: They will bring in veterans to compete, add depth, and give character to New England West. Brian Dawkins worked out very well for them last year.

Detroit: the Lions will pick somewhere between 7th and 11th next year if there is a draft. I'm not saying are good, but they are out of the top five.
Most impact: Jahvid Best, if he can stay healthy. I'm not sold on Ndamkung Suh to be honest. I know he graded out insanely high but after Glenn Dorsey, I'm really skeptical of taking a defensive tackle in the top 10. Best adds speed and a home run threat not named Calvin Johnson. Throw in Tony Sheffler, Nate Burleson, and Rob Sims and don't look now but the Lions may have an offense. I like Rob Sims from Seattle to Detroit. Instant upgrade on the line.
Biggest risk: I think the biggest risk is Suh actually. Again, I am uncomfortable taking defensive tackles so highly. The quality of interior linemen in the NFL is far superior than at the NCAA level; in the pros, you get top-tier offensive tackles move inside because they don't have the athletic ability to dominate on the perimeter. McCoy, and other top defensive tackle prospects, are going to find it more difficult coming in as a rookie and disrupting interior offensive lines.
Best value: Fourth round pick Jason Fox, ORT, Miami. Long gone are the days when we'd talk about all the Miami guys in the first round. Long gone. More likely to get a guy from Miami of Ohio before you get a guy from the U. But Fox can come in and compete for roster spot and maybe even a starting position in a year or two; I think he's a little raw and needs work.
Moves they'll make before camp: They could stand to get better at linebacker. They need more DB help despite bringing in Chris Houston and drafting Amari Spivey. They could use more interior linemen. They need a lot; that's why they are picking somewhere between 7 and 11 next year and not in the top five.

Green Bay: Proving that small market teams can compete
Most impact: Hard to tell who'll have more of an impact; Green Bay has three rookies who could start away: Brian Bulaga (ORT), Mike Neal (NT), and Morgan Burnett (S). Neal doesn't have to start but he can rotate and spell Raji or give the defensive fronts some different looks.
Biggest risk: I've been trying to find a risk but I really can't find one. Not that I think Green Bay is airtight - they weren't aggressive but they didn't stand pat. They didn't sign vets to sign names. They didn't trade picks to move up and down the draft board (I don't mind that strategy but after a while, you have to use those picks to draft football players who will play football). The only risk I see is that they didn't do enough to upgrade their interior OL. Bulaga will help a lot and is a building block for the future. However, they better buy a lot of duct tape to keep the remaining OL intact until they get more help. Giving Chad Clifton 3 years with $7.5M guaranteed is a lot for a guy they let walk and test the free agent waters.
Best value: Bulaga at 23rd overall is a prime candidate for best value.
Moves they'll make before camp: the Packers need help in the running game. I don't like the depth they have behind Grant, and I don't even like Grant all that much. Not sure if there is anyone else left to sign or bring in at this point, but they should look at their depth. Likely their offensive linemen are safe but with Bulaga probably starting, maybe inside at first then kicking outside, one of their OL will likely be cut - Allen Barbre, Josh Sitton, Jason Spitz - it's time to fish or cut bait on these guys. When you hear about the failures of the Packers line, it usually revolves around Tauscher getting old, Clifton getting old and getting hurt, and a combination of Barbre, Colledge, Sitton, and Spitz blowing blocks.

Houston: There is a reason why they are an 8-win team and not in the playoffs
Most impact: Ben Tate, RB, Auburn. I think he adds some balance and pop to the running game. Kareem Jackson was over-drafted, just like some said he would be, because he's the top corner in a Nick Saban defense.
Biggest risk: They didn't do much to move ahead of the pack. They are competing for a wild card spot and I'm not convinced they did much to move ahead of the perennial wild card contenders. The biggest single risk is that Kareem Jackson can step in an replace Dunta Robinson. He might over time, but they'll miss Robinson on that defense.
Best value: The Dorrin Dickerson pick puzzled me when they had Owen Daniels but also Nick Driesen who filled in for Owens after his knee injury. Dickerson fell to the 7th round and is probably good value, but the bottom line is that he fell for a reason. I like LB Darryl Sharpton in the 4th even though he is a 2-down LB, G Shelley Smith in the 6th, and undrafted free agent OT Adam Ulatowski from Texas; he'll land on the practice squad and be a guard.
Moves they'll make before camp: They will add a veteran defensive back before camp. They will sign a veteran interior offensive lineman.

Indianapolis: Not what I would've done, but then again, I'm no Bill Polian
Most impact: Jerry Hughes will get on the field and he has the measurables to make an instant impact. Strong, quick, smart, non-stop motor, intense player. He's not the pick I would've made if I was Polian - I would've gone for Roger Saffold at the end of the first round. Yes, he might be only an ORT but to me, the reason the Colts lost the Super Bowl is that they couldn't give Manning time and all year long, they couldn't dominate the line of scrimmage. Saffold might be an ORT because of his arm length but he'll start for years to come. But that's why Bill Polian is who is he is - he took an impact player, in my opinion, the 2nd best pass rusher behind Brandon Graham. Polian probably thought that the Super Bowl is much closer if Dwight Freeney was sitting in the Saints' backfield eating wings and queso and smacking Drew Brees around. The Colts really were not the same team without him.
Biggest risk: Passing on Roger Saffold. Their OL is bordering on pitiful. Jeff Saturday is a good technician but he's on the verge of living off his reputation. Adam Terry will help.
Best value: Like the Packers, the Colts found value all over the place. Pat Angerer will bolster the LB corps and compete for playing time right off the bat. Kevin Thomas from USC can be a player. I like Kavell Conner from Clemson in the 6th round and Ray Fisher from Indiana might be a steal.
Moves they'll make before camp: Hard to say what the Colts will do. I think they need OL help - most teams, I think they need OL help. But for all their DL investments, they are still only as good as Freeney is healthy.

Jacksonville: Not really sure what they are doing
Most impact: It's hard to find a rookie or first year player that's going to have the most impact. I like Tyson Alualu quite a bit, but the problem with evaluating defensive linemen in the NFL draft is the level of competition they have to study on tape. Alualu has a nonstop motor but what does that mean when teams will run draws and counters that take advantage of his non-stop motor? Kirk Morrison, whom they picked up in a trade from Oakland will make an immediate and positive impact on the team. Freddy Keiaho from the Colts will also get a starting job and the LB are now a strong and deep group by adding those two. Gene Smith is interesting - his moves seem to be for the long-term but I don't know that the Jags are really in long-term mode when you look at their stadium every week.
Biggest risk: No offensive weapons to go along with Pocket Hercules. They are a streaky team - when they are hot, their cast of whodats on offensive seem like a bunch of whirling dervishes picking up chunks of yards: #11 for 20 yards . . who's that? #33 for an 8 yard carry. #19 for 18 yards on an end-around, etc.
Best value: Austen Lane in the 5th round is a nice value but with about 12 defensive ends on the roster, he's kind of lost in the shuffle. RB Deji Karim from Southern Illinois is another power dwarf running back (5'8" 3/4, 210 lbs) to go with MoJo D and Rashad Jennings. They also signed Kyle Bosworth, nephew of the Boz, as an undrafted free agent. Not quite the media attention from drafting the Tebeow, but . . .
Moves they'll make before camp: Luke McCown will force the issue at QB. McCown won't unseat Garrard, but he'll sling it around enough to cause a QB controversy.

Kansas City: Maybe this year they get it back on track, if Todd Haley can stop yelling and cursing at his players
Most impact: Perhaps the biggest no-brainer of my who lack of brain effort to recap the draft and free agent activity to date, Eric Berry. A few years ago, Glenn Dorsey was a can't miss prospect for Kansas City; now, it's Eric Berry. Wait . . . Scott Pioli better get this one right, otherwise Flyover New England might be overrun by disgruntled Chiefs fans.

Biggest risk: The '10 draft class looks good on paper: Dexter McCluster will be a playmaker to complement Jamaal Charles, Thomas Jones, and Dwayne Bowe. Javier Arenas will start in the defensive backfield with Berry. Jon Asamoah should compete for a starting job at G. Tony Moeaki should likewise compete for a starting job at TE; heck, I could probably get some reps at TE for the Chefs. The Chiefs also signed Colts castoff Ryan Lilja and former Broncos C Casey Weigmann. Both guys couldn't hack it on their former teams and were replaced or deemed expendable because they were older veterans. The Chiefs passed on taking a top OLT prospect because they believe Branden Albert can be that guy - I think he can, too, and are bringing in veterans to compete and possibly start. I'm not a big proponent of retooled OL paying immediate dividends.
Best value: Eric Berry might be the most pro-ready player in the draft and to take him at 5th overall is good value. Javier Arenas with the 50th overall pick was nice value though he went where he probably should've. Jon Asamoah in the 3rd at 68th overall likewise showed good value. I really like the move of bringing in untendered WR/ST Jehreme Urban. He'll get significant reps and is an upgrade at WR for them plus he's a hard-nosed ST. The Chefs need all the hard-nosed players they can get. They need a little more nuance from their coach and less hard-nosed though. Though, Haley is what he is.
Moves they'll make before camp: There will be a lot of roster shuffling. I wouldn't be surprised to see more Peterson-Edwards holdovers cut.

Miami: the Dolphins are either going to progress or start to unravel; if they unravel, Parcells will jump ship
Most impact: Brandon Marshall. Can't believe they got him for two second rounders; amazing. I'm concerned about this character issue that Parcells claims he wants in his players - if Marshall was a problem in Denver, do you think he's going to suddenly buckle up his chinstrap and transform into the second coming of Jerry Rice? Look, I don't really care about this talk about "character" - really, all that means is that a "character" guy puts football first and foremost in his life. He's not changing flat tires of moms in minivans or playing dominoes at the old folks' home - he can run over people on the way to work so long as he's a locker room fiend, sleeps in his car in the parking lot the night before OTAs start, and is there on his days off to watch film. Marshall is immature but he's not a borderline psycho like Richie Incognito, your new starting ORG in Miami. Karlos Dansby was the big free agent signing but this isn't the NFC West and he'll look a little out of place going against the Jets and Patriots for 4 games a year.
Biggest risk: Brandon Marshall. He's going to be a big addition to this team but what is his real value going to be? I have to think that Darrelle Revis will shut him down twice and Belichick will game plan for him and the Bills, though deplorable, do have good corners. The real value is, as we all know, is that his presence will take pressure off the running game which really is Miami's strength.
Best value: I think any talk of real value was kind of tanked when they brilliantly traded down to 28th and took Jared Odrick. I really like him as a 5T and he will fit in beautifully in Miami's defensive line rotation but DE wasn't really a need. I do like Koa Misi as a pass-rushing OLB. They got some production last year from CFL standout Cameron Wake and they will need more to replace Peezy.
Moves they'll make before camp: They need more receivers to go with Marshall; I like Hartline and Bess but they aren't really weapons.