Sizing up Team Movements --- Part 1

The NFL season is almost back in full swing.  The draft is over, the first wave of undrafted free agent signings is complete, and teams have held their first minicamps.  Standby for the OTAs and other minicamps that will follow in the next few months. 

The post-draft grades have been handed out and pundits and analysts vary in their grading system.  Some look at just the players taken, some look at where players where taken, some look at needs filled, some look at overall talent.  As Football Outsiders noted, you really can't look at a draft class' real value for at least 3 years, sometimes maybe longer.

Before I get into the first trenchant of team reviews, I felt like a hater commenting on Myron Rolle after my last post.  Let me contrast him to a player I'm pulling for but who likely won't make his team - Blair White, undrafted free agent, Indianapolis Colts.  White not only graduated from Michigan State (ok, not too hard) but has already been accepted into dental school.  Little Shop of Horror jokes aside, White's already made it.  He's going to give it a shot with the Colts.  He may not have a chance with the talent-laden Colts who got plenty of production from Austin Collie but get back Anthony Gonzalez and have expectations for young WR Sam Giguere.  But White walked onto Michigan State and I think eventually earned a scholarship and was team captain.  He lead the Spartans in receiving two years in a row and also has experience as a ST gunner.  In fact if he makes the team, it'll be because of his work ethic and ST contributions.  This is a story the NFL pundits and reporters should tell you about instead of Tebows, Myron Rolles, and Dezes.  But they won't because not too many people want to read about a kid like Blair White.  They'd much rather read about controversies and have heroes and heels created for them by journalists. 

In the next few posts, I'll assess where I think all 32 teams are for the coming year.  What move will have the most impact, the biggest risk they have assumed, what moves have the best value, and what movements they'll make going into OTAs and eventually camps. 

Arizona: Arizona didn't do enough to keep pace with the Niners and may have even ceded ground to the Seahawks. 
Most impact: Gutting their defense.  Antrel Rolle never lived up to the hype at corner but was somewhat reliable at safety.  The trend of Pittsburgh free agents not playing like Steelers when they leave Pittsburgh continued with Bryant McFadden, who was traded back to Pittsburgh in the offeason.  Lastly, Karlos Dansby was the premiere defensive player this offseason (not Julius Peppers) and he got paid by Miami.  They drafted Dan Williams who represents good value but I have a Gabe Watson feeling and Daryl Washington also represents good value at 47th overall.  O'Brien Schofield was a big reach in the 4th round as he rehabs his knees. 
Biggest risk: Matt Leinart and Derek Anderson are your QBs.  Big defensive free agent acquisitions are Kerry Rhodes and Paris Lenon.  Not such which pair is the biggest risk.  Leinart can play but he's not Kurt Warner.  They also didn't do much to replace Anquan Boldin and will rely on Steve Breaston to step up. 
Best value: Max Hall, UDFA QB from BYU, is a good kid to bring in.  Likely he will end up on the practice squad of some team but he gives some depth to the position.  John Skelton, the first player from Fordham to be drafted since the Gemini program (wild guess), will not be ready in '10 to back up. 
Movements they'll make before camp: I expect them to sign a veteran wide receiver and QB for depth, experience, and leadership. 

Atlanta: Didn't do much to move up and contend with the Saints. 
Most impact: Since they didn't do too much in the offseason, bringing Texans CB Dunta Robinson is the best candidate.  While they won't supplant the Saints anytime soon, they needed add more quality depth to the defensive backfield.  We'll see what William Moore can do this year but they really needed to take a ballhawking safety in the second round.  They hope that Peria Jerry can come back and with '10 rookie Corey Peters (a nice pick at 83rd overall) and beef up the middle of the defense. 
Biggest risk: With all their moves, they still can't get to the quarterback.  If John Abraham doesn't get to Drew Brees, nobody on the Falcons defense will.  Seriously.  While the premium pass rushers were gone by the time they picked, this was their greatest need.  Tom Dmitroff took Sean Weatherspoon 19th overall and he's a WILL at best and likely not going to be rushing the passer all that much.  The problem with all this?  The longer the QB has to make his reads, the more pressure there will be on the DBs (who still aren't that good) and then all the defensive moves really don't matter too much. 
Best value: I'll make my first nod to Rick Gosselin (Dallas Morning News) - the Falcons signed TE Colin Peek, one of his top 300 college prospects as an undrafted free agent (UDFA). 
Movements they'll make before camp: Not really sure; they could shuffle their OL a little.  They need more and better bodies in the defensive backfield.  And of course they need pass rushing defensive ends. 

Baltimore: Ozzie Newsome isn't bulletproof (ok not a great analogy these days) but the Ravens are a deep and talented team and will win the North. 
Most impact: Anquan Boldin is the most popular pick for biggest impact.  Instant and big upgrade at receiver.  What's lost here though is the fact that for Boldin to be a real hero in Balmer, hon, Joe Flacco has to become a better QB.  Yeah, there is a lot of highlight tape of his laser arm rocketing balls all over the place, but there were a lot - a lot - of games where his stat lines were terrible because he was so wild.  Jim Zorn will get a chance to resuscitate his career and become a coordinator somewhere if he can get Flacco to the next level; Cam Cameron couldn't.  Of course Cam thought John Beck was an NFL-caliber starter. 

Biggest risk: the 2010 draft class.  That's what I mean when I say that Ozzie Newsome isn't bulletproof.  His a great drafter and a solid evaluator of talent.  But Terrance Cody will always look like that girl from Precious and is a couple of Domino pizzas away from eating himself out of the league.  Sergio Kindle looked great running around in his underwear at his pro day but look at his college body of work - it's not very impressive.  I was high on Kindle going into the draft because of his upside but his fall in the draft reminded me that kodak doesn't lie and he has a lot to learn before he contributes in the NFL. 
Best value: Dennis Pitta, TE, BYU, taken in the 4th round, should contribute by the first month of the season.  He's a good route runner with good short movement skills.  David Reed, taken in the 5th round, is a WR straight outta Utah who should add quality depth to the WR position, a traditional position of weakness with the Ravens.  Goose Gosselin likes Albert McClellan, DE, from Marshall, so so do I. 
Movements they'll make before camp: Not really sure - no real weaknesses.  Some veteran reserve DBs might not be back in '10.  Omar Gaither may not be traded - it's hard to move a guy when you make it clear you don't want him - so they should hold onto him as a quality backup. 

Buffalo: the 2010 Bills; or, the Case Against Revenue Sharing
Most impact: CJ Spiller.  He's electric but will be a total waste in Buffalo.  There is no threat of a passing game and no one to block for him.  I have no idea what the Bills are doing other than trying to bottom out so they have an argument for moving to Toronto.  They did make some moves to bolster their defensive line so maybe their theory is win by playing great defense and special teams.  Yeah, that seems to be a trend in the league these days. 
Biggest risk: It's a tie between not improving their OL and passing on Jimmy Clausen twice with their first two picks (9 and 41).  I'd have to go with passing on Clausen.  Say what you will about him but they need an upgrade at QB badly and he was it.  A lot of folks subscribe to the bus driver theory of QBs, but look at it this way - the QB is the only guy who handles the ball on every offensive play.  Yes the center snaps the ball but that's not the point.  The QB matters.  Brady, Manning, and Brees have reminded everybody of that.  That and all the pisspoor QB play in the league lately has, too. 
Best value: Levi Brown and Kyle Calloway in the 7th round.  Probably the best value picks all day.  Neither kid will step in immediately but I liked what they did at each position.  Brown was always a developmental prospect with good intangibles and base skills (like throwing the ball real hard, real far) and Calloway, a Big 10 starting OT, feel because of back problems and short arms.  Couldn't reach his back to rub it, I guess. 
Movements they'll make before camp: They should sign a free agent, veteran OLT to replace Jason Peters.  Otherwise, the offense is DOA.

Carolina : it doesn't look pretty so far, but if Clausen pans out, then all's well.  It still seems like John Fox wants to get fired or the Panthers management wants to have such a bad year that they have no choice but to fire Fox.
Most impact: If he starts, and he should beat out undrafted Matt Moore, then Jimmy Clausen make the team better.  I'm sure he'll have his lumps but somewhere in a bar that looks like it came from the Drew Carey show, Jake Delhomme is sitting with Oswald saying "they won't have me to kick around". 
Biggest risk:  Everette Brown has to step up and produce 10+ sacks.  The Panthers gave up two first rounders to take him and he's the answer to the question "why did you let Julius Peppers walk?"  They also let DT Maake Kemoeata go.  They kept HBO reality star Tank Tyler and Tyler Brayton who is a solid body on the front four.  The defense better produce next year or else Fox is gone.  He may be gone anyway.   They will miss Brad Hoover on the team; he might be one of the longest tenured Panthers. 
Best value: This might be a stretch, but I like Brandon LaFell as nice value with the 78th overall pick.  I liked him a little higher.  He might give Steve Smith some relief at some point this year.  Tony Pike in the 6th round is a also a nice pick-up; their future backup QB. 
Movements they'll make before camp: Look for some defensive movement to get depth and add quality.

Chicago: Not really sure what they are doing.  Still, they got some quality players with the few picks they had.
Most impact: All eyes will be on Julius Peppers.  He has his work cut out for him with quality tackles at Minnesota and quality/decent tackles at Green Bay.  He will feast on Matt Stafford.  Major Wright should come in and compete for playing time.  He's instinctive, but he does need to adjust to the pro game. 
Biggest risk: I think the whole team qualifies as the biggest risk.  They gave up too much to get Cutler and too much for Gaines Adams (RIP).  I can understand packaging picks for getting big name players but it's a risk. 
Best value: I like Corey Wotton in the 4th round, 109th overall.  I liked him more as a possible 5T, but he should help the defensive line quite a bit.  It seems to be a rare instance where Chicago got younger and got better at a position. 
Movements they'll make before camp: Who knows what 2011+ picks they'll trade away for the next big name. 
Cincinnatti: it's the remake of North Dallas 40. 
Most impact: Hard to tell.  I like a lot of their moves on paper.  Antonio Bryant, Matt Jones, Jordan Shipley, and Jermaine Gresham should bolster their receiving corps.  I also like Pacman Jones.  I liked him in Dallas - he was out of shape and didn't take his second chance seriously.  Now let's see what he does.  But they have Jonathan Joseph and Leon Hall - probably the most underrated cornerback duo in the league.  All Pacman has to do is play the nickel.  And make it rain.  Geno Atkins should bolster the DL.  Gibril Wilson will bring the thunder in the secondary; he records 80+ tackles it seems every year.  Makes you wonder if the Roy Williams Reclamation Project isn't over this summer. 
Biggest risk: Is Carson Palmer healthy?  He better be.  There are plenty of legit targets and he has to spread the love in the 'Natti.  The biggest risk in all seriousness is that these receivers 1) develop a rapport with Palmer by the 3rd preseason game; 2) accept, focus on, and perform their role on this team; and 3) these receivers who all have character concerns (except for Jordan Shipley and Gresham) keep it under lids for at least the first few months. 
Biggest value: Briscoe County Junior in the 6th round.  He might surprise a few people in camp and might make the team. 
Moves the team will make before camp: Roy L. Williams will be cut.

Cleveland: Holmgren makes his mark
Biggest impact: Chris Gocong and Scott Shanle.  I really don't know why but I think bringing in these two hard-nosed, try-hard, lunch pail ILB will add toughness, grit, and character to a defense that needs it.  Both can lead.  The Browns sorely lacked a leader last year.  Maybe they were afraid Shaun Rogers would hit them in the head with his helmet if they spoke up.  But there are good players on that defense - Dqwell Jackson is a tackling machine.  Matt Roth rebounded nicely out of the Tuna's doghouse or whatever a Tuna uses to humiliate a professional football player.  Monterrio Hardesty, their second 2nd round pick (59th overall) will make some noise as a rookie.  With Jerome Harrison and former college backfield mate James Davis the Browns should pound the ball.  They better with Jake Delhomme throwing ducks in windy Browns Stadium.  That could be really ugly in the winter months. 
Biggest risk: Passing on Jimmy Clausen for Colt McCoy.  Mike Holmgren knows food and he knows QB.  So I defer to his judgment.  But Coltt McCoy will not be a winning pro QB.  He's short, he lacks arm strength (biggest concern), and he isn't durable.  If Clausen is the real deal and McCoy isn't, then Holmgren's tenure in Cleveland will be marred. 
Best value: The team's two last draft picks in '10, Carlton Mitchell and Clifton Geathers, will compete in camp for jobs, adding some youthful vigor and excitement. 

Lastly- thanks Mom.  Happy Mother's Day.