Ok, so it's been a while since I've posted. It's too hard to keep up a routine blog and have any sort of meaningful activity in life. And it's hard to compete with tweets and chirps; even the Library of Congress has started noting these blurbs as forms of communication worth cataloging.

But if there is one thing that gets the armchair general in all of us up in arms, it's the NFL draft.

Even with Roger Goodell - whom I'm convinced with each passing day is perhaps one of the worst forces that could happen in the National Football League - splitting up the draft over three days in order to garner more money for the league, it'll still have drama and excitement and plenty of gnashing and grinding of teeth as well as rejoicing over the paper champions that rule the NFL under the next fall.

The draft is a great time to think through the talent evaluation process for NFL teams and realize what the draft is really about: talent, upside, and value. Those three parameters are the Clausewitzian trinity of NFL personnel management: getting the right mix of talent and potential - you don't want a guy who's already peaked - at the right point in the draft. You don't want to take a guy at 2o you could've gotten at 40. Sometimes it's hard and the personnel department has to make a judgment call, that reaching for a guy is worth the cost in the long run.

So without further banty, here is my first cut at what I think will happen. Not what I would do if I were the GM or my own draft board.

1. STL: Sam Bradford, QB, OU With so many gaps you could go any number of directions with the #1 overall pick. I wasn't enamored with Bradford coming out of the combine but watching his pro day workout and looking over his stats and college career, it's hard to not like him at least as the best in an undistinguished QB litter. They could trade but what else is there for the Rams to take at this position at the top of the second? Colt McCoy has a weak arm. They could play chicken at take somebody like Tony Pike at the top of the 3rd or even gamble and wait for the 4th. They have Fritz Shurmur in STL to coach their QB so conceivably any WCO-type QB could fit.

2. DET: Ndamukong Suh, DT, Nebraska This is the first wild card of the draft. Martin Mayhew has a lot of good sound bytes - he sounds like he should be a GM, but you look at some of his personnel decisions, and you kinda wonder. I would take Okung or even Trent Williams at this point - they invested their big money in Matthew Stafford last year and every big hit from the blindside is about $50K to $100K when you consider that each hit might be the hit that knocks him out of action. Also Jeff Backus is out of position at OLT and taking Okung solves two needs - it allows them to move Backus to OLG and gets a cornerstone OLT. Lastly - I am VERY skeptical of taking a DT so highly in the first round. Glenn Dorsey comes to mind.

3. TB: Gerald McCoy, DT, OU See comment on Suh; I don't like taking DT this highly. Warren Sapp might've been the interior DL taken this highly who's played at an All Pro level. Richard Seymour has made an impact taken at 6 overall, but he's made his hay at DE. Casey Hampton was taken at 19th. Haloti Ngata was taken at 12th. Vince Wilfork was taken at 21st. It's tough for interior DL to live up to the hype when they are taken in the top 10. It's hard to make an impact when they don't make many tackles, aren't looked to for sacks. This is why a lot of teams draft highly - they take the guys they should take rather than look for the guy who is the best football player who will make the most plays for them. Not saying I'd pass on McCoy - he seems like a good kid and would fill a need - but there is a lot of pressure to produce for a guy who never is near the football except before the snap ere this draft be labled a bust for the Bucs.

4. WAS: Russel Okung, OLT, Ok State Tough call here. The Skins have less than a handful of picks and given the status of their roster they could stand to trade down and accumulate more picks. Taking a fine OLT like Okung would shore up the investment of their 2nd round pick (Donny Mac) but to be honest, Donny Mac kind obviates the need for a stable OL by virtue of his playmaking ability - he can move around and get out of the pocket. The Skins have signaled their willingness to trade out of the 4th pick - saying they are open to drafting a QB - signals anybody who wants either Eric Berry really bad (Philadelphia?) or Jimmy Clausen (Minnesota?) can make their best offer. Philly has the most ammo to move up - actually New England might have more picks - but I don't see anybody moving up to take Bradford. And somehow if Bradford makes it to 4, who says Shanny doesn't take him?

5. KC: Eric Berry, S, Tennessee Some folks have Bulaga going here. I don't see it. One, Scott Pioli picks defensive guys in the first round. Two, Bulaga has really short arms for an OLT prospect (32 or 33 inches). Three, do you really move Branden Albert from OLT to ORT and insert a rookie as your starter. Four, though Iowa "has turned out some quality OL" under OL coach Kirk Ferentz, you say Brian Bulaga, I say Robert Gallery. Berry is probably the highest impact guy in this draft, certainly in the top 3 in that discussion. The Chefs are in a world of hurt but putting Berry back there would help. I never understood why they cut Bernard Pollard - he certainly made Matt Cassel a rich, rich man and he had an impact on Scott Pioli's career too.

6. SEA: CJ Spiller, RB, Clemson A lot of folks have Trent Williams going here. Williams has the physical traits of the proverbial prototype OLT. Extremely long arms. Very tall. Good feet. But he's a little immature. The first round of the draft is about upside. Every blue chip kid is big, strong, and fast. The trick is finding kids who can still fill out their potential; finding kids who can still grow in skill and character as opposed to those who've achieved all they are going to achieve and hit their ceiling against NCAA talent. And in the top 10, it's about finding playmakers. If you are going to take an OLT, get the best one. Or get one who is going to be one of the best, given time. That failing, get guys who are going to make plays. Preferably big plays. CJ Spiller is one of those guys. He is small but he plays big. He needs space but he can create. And when he gets some space, he is dangerous. The Seahawks desperately, desperately need playmakers. Hells bells they just traded a third rounder for a 3rd string QB who strongly resembles Billy Ray Cyrus. Spiller will need to develop - few backs make the transition to the pro game seamlessly. But has potential and is explosive. The right combo.

7. CLE: Joe Haden, CB, Florida Mike Holmgren could take Casey um Jimmy Clausen, I would (Jimmy, not Casey). But he may go with Colt McCoy in the 2nd. The Browns need receiving help - maybe they go Dez Bryant. He should be taken here, such is his talent. But he's immature, forgetful, and irresponsible. Not the kind of pick Mike Holmgren wants to put on his legacy. Instead he will go with a safe pick - Joe Haden. The Browns need help all over the place - receiver, quarterback, defensive line. But there aren't any DL for the Mangina 30 front here at 7. Rolando McLain would be a nice pick here - a playmaker and team leader, both of which the Browns need. But the defensive backfield is one of many needs the Browns have.

8. OAK: Taylor Mays, S, USC A lot of people have Bruce Campbell here and he may be taken. But methinks Al sees Taylor Mays and thinks Ronnie Lott. Mays will hit you like a ton of bricks. If he gets the right angle on you. If he knows where the ball is. Mays will, mark my words, turn into a LB. Also I want somebody else to take Mays because I am afraid Jerry Jones will.
9. BUF: Jimmy Clausen, QB, Notre Dame Again the top 10 is about playmakers and upside and Clausen is/has both. I have reservations about his leadership and overall skill set - he should've won more games than he did as a starter. He should've been more of a leader than rumors say he is. But he has the arm. He has the look. He can get people in Buffalo excited about the QB position again. The Bills need OL help and could go Trent Williams here. They need DL help and Derrick Morgan would be a good fit. They need LB but the middle is full with the Poz and Rolando McLain would be overkill. Plus they could get a good WLB prospect at the top of the second. Brian Bulaga would be a good pick but to paraphrase Ricky Watters, "for who, for what?" would he block - Ryan Fitzpatrick, Trent Edwards, Marshawn Lynch, and Fred Jackson? Bulaga could block his guy into Lake Ontario and Fitzpatrick would throw a floater into double coverage, Trent Edwards would dump off to a back after making his reads, 3 times, Marshawn Lynch would be found with both a loaded 9mm and a joint under his pads, and Fred Jackson will pick up 122 total yards in a 27-9 loss. Turn the page and start anew with Casey er Jimmy.

10. JAC: Derrick Morgan, DE, Georgia Tech Morgan is a top ten talent. His motor doesn't stop. He's not the best pass rusher - he doesn't have a complete repetoire. Even though they signed Kampmann and it seems like they have drafted 8 defensive ends in the past 2 years, they shouldn't pass up Morgan. Just as the first round is about upside, the NFL is about 2 things now: picking up big chunks of yard most done easily in the passing game and getting to the QB and disrupting the opponent's offensive rhythm. You can never have enough pass rushers in today's NFL.

11. DEN: Rolando McLain, LB, Alabama Some mock drafts have Dez Bryant going here, but come on, if Josh Daniels traded Brandon Marshall because he was immature, why would they draft Dez Bryant? Plus, does anyone realize the kind of headache it's going to be to deal with Dez's agent while listening to Deion Sanders harp on TV in his cacaphonous voice: "pay the man. Pay the man. Pay the man". Because Dez Bryant is going to demand to be paid like the first receiver. Which he will be. But outside the top 10. Maybe even the top 15. If McDaniels is serious about building a team of character, then he will go with McLain. Plus ILB is a big need for the Broncos defense.

12. MIA: Sergio Kindle, OLB, Texas Bill Parcells got real lucky around this spot in 2005 when he took Demarcus Ware, at 11 I think. The Dolphins could go with Dez Bryant here, but man, a team with Marhsall and Dez Bryant? Wow. Again the NFL is all about getting to the QB. Some people like Kindle more than Orakpo. I'm not that enamored with Kindle but then again I wasn't with Orakpo last year either. Miami really needs pass rushers and guys who can play in the 30 front. Kindle is the best of that bunch.

13. SF: Trent Williams, OLT, Oklahoma How did he fall this far? Al Davis is crazy (Lord rest his soul, though that has already been pledged to someone else in exchange for some help/revenge against Pete Rozell) and teams 9 through 12 already have their franchise OLT. Williams falls this low because of concerns about his maturity and work ethic. What does it really mean to say you have a "work ethic" when you are a pro athlete? I mean, don't you just work out and play a sport all day or something? Seriously though there are concerns about Williams willingness to stay in top shape, to work hard to be the best, and his mental commitment to the game. Samurai Mike probably can help Trent Williams be serious about football. Plus this move helps the Niners address shortfalls on their OL already - Joe Staley can move to ORT as he is a little overmatched at OLT.

14. SEA: Brian Bulaga, OLT, Iowa The strategy of passing on a top OLT to take Spiller at 6th makes sense now assuming no team trades up to take one of them. This is truly a deep draft at OLT. Seattle needs help at OLT especially since Walter Jones is retiring.
15. NYG: Sean Weatherspoon This is another wildcard and an example of how it's tough to make need match up with available talent. The Giants need help at LB badly. They could use another running back. OL depth especially inside is needed. However at this point, Earl Thomas is the best player available and the Giants signed just about every safety available in free agency. It would be a waste of time and money to draft Thomas and let him sit while the free agents play out their first years. It's a little early to draft Mike Iupati. They don't need a Center with one of the more reliable ones in Shaun O'Hara. Ryan Mathews would be an intruiging pick and worth it, I think. Jermaine Gresham is a good option here but it's almost getting to the point where they have too many receiving targets and Gresham isn't much of an inline blocker. Yes they could split him with Boss and using two TE is a trend in the leauge now, but it doesn't seem plausible under Kevin Gilbride. They could wait for a second-tier MLB prospect in the second round but it might be too dicey of a proposition. One player they might take is Sean Weatherspoon. Reports are abounding now about his selfish attitude but he's talented and play the WLB too. I don't envy Jerry Reese. This isn't an easy pick.

16. TEN: Jason Paul-Pierre, DE, USF Paul-Pierre may go earlier than this but I don't think he's really a solid pro prospect as a DE; I'm not convinced he has enough moves to be a consistent pass rusher nor is he physical to play the run. But the Titans are desperate for a pass rushing DE and Paul-Pierre has the upside to warrant a pick here. Brandon Graham seems like a good pick here too - undersized DE for a 40 front; high motor and great work ethic. He seems to fit the Jeff Fisher mold.

17. PHI (from SF): Earl Thomas, S, Texas Taking a stab at projecting the first trade. Why the Niners? They have 2 first rounders. Why the Eagles? They have 10 picks and like their roster enough to not pick 10 guys and have 10 position battles in camp. They have the ammo to move up. They need a safety and Thomas is the second-best S in the draft which isn't a knock against him. Philly can give up one of their 2nd rounders or both or a 2nd rounder and late round pick and a 2nd rounder in 2011.

18. PIT: Maurkice Pouncey, C, Florida Pouncey is the best interior OL. Many have Iupati ranked higher but Pouncey is more pro-ready. Pouncey can also play OG in addition to C. Iupati can also kick out to ORT, let it be said.
19. ATL: Brandon Graham, DE, Michigan Tom Dmitroff doesn't pull punches; he said he drafts for need. At this spot, Jermaine Gresham seems to be the most valuable pick. But, ATL received zero/little production from its DL and was abysmal in sacks. Graham would be a good fit and fill a need.

20. Hou: Ryan Mathews, RB, Fresno State Houston's running game was awful last year and many folks are saying it wasn't all the OL's fault. Owning Steve Slaton in one fantasy league, I have to agree. Mathews is a bellcow of a back but let it be said that he did have his durability concerns at Fresno State.

21. CIN: Dez Bryant, WR, Sitting on His Couch This is a bit of a stretch but Dez's freefall has to stop and why not with the Bengals? They could go Jermaine Gresham here but Dez is too enticing of a prospect to pass up. And lately under Marv Lewis, they have an Island of Misfit Toys look about them so why not? It works on so many levels.

22. NE: Jermaine Gresham, TE, Oklahoma Belichick goes with the best player that fits his scheme. Gresham will help Brady and they need pass catchers at this point as there is no timetable for Welker anytime soon. Belichick could get value out of Iupati but the Jets and the Phins have put pressure on the Pats whether anyone admits it or not. One solution would be to go defense, which was a weak spot at times when Belichick lacked the players to fit his pressure-focused schemes. Another solution which is unconventional but fits Belichick is to put good money after good - give Brady another target. A good offense is a good defense at times.

23. GB: Anthony Davis, OL, Rutgers When did Rutgers turn into an NFL factory with consecutive years with 1st round picks? Davis has questionable work ethic but if he didn't he wouldn't an offensive tackle prospect drafted in the 20s labled as "OL" or with his scouting report reading "may find a home on the inside". Still, Davis gives the Pack flexibility to play multiple positions and perhaps may emerge as the starting OT in a year or two; they still have Jarmon Meredith from South Carolina whom they took in the middle rounds in '09. An intruiging pick here might be Jahvid Best - he might be a reach but he also might be a nice role player as a rookie, spelling Ryan Grant and adding a big play threat to the offense and take some pressure off Aaron Rodgers.

24. SF: Mike Iupati, OG, Idaho The Niners are able to trade down and still get their man. Samurai Mike wants to run the ball. He needs to run the ball, literally, because it means that Alex Smith isn't throwing it as much. Iupati is still raw - word is, he holds all the time, on every play. But his mentality fits perfectly with what Singletary wants to do with the team - smash the division in the mouth and take the title back to the Bay.

25. BAL: Dan Williams, DT, Tennessee Williams is the third best DT in the draft but that isn't a slight given that 1 and 3 are Suh and McCoy. Williams will augment a hardworking and often times overachieving Ravens DL. Haloti Ngata is the most talented player and the Ravens defense was at its heyday when they have two massive, disruptive men in the middle.

26. ARI: Demaryius Thomas, WR, Georgia Tech I was down on this guy after the combine - he ran an uninspiring 3 cone drill and showed shaky hands. He has a propensity for drops. But he had a nice private workout just before the draft and the Cardinals need someone to replace Anquan Boldin.

27. DAL: Nate Allen, S, South Florida I would like a lineman here like Vladimir Ducasse or even Charles Brown (Cowboys fans should be wary odf USC left tackles) but Jerry Jones has never drafted an OL in the first round and I doubt he will start now. I hope to high heaven that he doesn't draft Taylor Mays who will be available. Dallas needs a FS prospect and Nate Allen is the rangy center fielder type that would work in Phillips' defense. They could go OL here and try and go for Morgan Burnett in the second round. And Jerry could always trade out of this spot, too.

28. SD: Patrick Robinson, CB, Florida State The Chargers could go with a defensive end like Jared Odrick here. But trading Antonio Cromartie to the Jets leaves a big hole in their secondary. Robinson has the same build, but AJ Smith took Antoine Cason who is might mite compared to Cromartie in the early rounds a few years back. If I was AJ Smith, I would've taken Beanie Wells at 15 last year instead of Larry English; Beanie Wells in 2010 would be a nice answer to their backfield mess than English, who is still trying to crack the starting lineup.

29. NYJ: Jared Odrick, DE, Penn State The Jets don't need much but they should make every pick count - they are the paper offseason champs this year. If they are going to seriously challenge the Pats and guard their rear from the surging Dolphins who could make some noise and challenge for a wild card spot this year. Odrick would add some depth to the DL and also give them flexibility; he won't seriously spell Kris Jenkins (but odds are Jenkins will miss time with some injury this year) but he will give Rex Luthor some options.

30. MIN: Kareem Jackson, DB, Alabama Minnesota's defense was never the same once Antoine Winfield hurt his foot. They could use interior OL help - Vladimir Ducasse is a good prospect at this slot and could be developed and brought along in a year or two to start.

31. IND: Charles Brown, OLT/ORT , Southern California I never know what Bill Polian does with the Colts in the first round. They could take Brian Price in an effort to shore up their weak undersized defensive line. Polian said in the offseason he was disappointed in his OL, felt they let the team down. Getting a prospect like Brown will shore up their OL.

32. NO: Everson Griffen, DE, Southern California The world champions are an embarrassment of riches on offense and an aggressive risky bunch on defense. Where do they need to improve? The defensive line. As the Saints know well, teams have a better chance of winning when they can disrupt their opponent's timing on offense. I don't like Everson Griffen but he's a luxury that the world champion can afford to take at 32. I also like Jerry Hughes here. Some people have him as a 30 look, rush OLB; I think he's too short to man up at OLB. Hughes would be be served to play WLB in a 40 defense. NO needs some linebacker help desperately; they've been playing with 66 percent of the Cowboys' '05 LB corps (Shanle and Fujita).

I’ll try and get another post up here before the draft. Stay tuned.