Friday, May 1, 2009

There's a draft in here

The draft has come and gone and the pundits are handing out their grades. Grading drafts immediately is a waste of time, even though it does make good reading. Saying that a team had a great 2009 draft because that team got so-and-so is like saying you wound up with the best looking of the homely girls at the dance. Whoopity do. Outside of a handful of guys, there aren’t many impact players.

I think Aaron Curry will be starter from day one, but since he’s not a pass rusher, you’re getting a really good linebacker. Jason Smith has all the measurables and attitude you want, but he never put his hand down as an OT; can he really step in from day one and contribute, like you expect the #2 overall pick to do? Tyson Jackson doesn’t strike me as the second coming of Ty Warren. Jeremy Maclin was a great pickup by the Eagles at 19 overall, but they already have a deep threat in Desean Jackson – and Maclin has to become a better route-runner, too.

The best you can do is evaluate how well teams used the draft process to improve their team. By that I mean, how well do teams use the draft process (packaging picks to move up; trading players from the current roster for picks this year; or, trading down and acquiring picks for the next season). I am not a fan of drafting for need, but teams that have needs should address them with value picks (i.e., the right player for their scheme, their system, at the appropriate point in the draft). Teams that “get” the concept of the draft are:
  • Detroit: they need to get better up and down the roster and they should be, with the top QB, TE, and FS in the draft. I also like Derrick Williams, Lydon Murtha, and Zack Follet to compete for roster spots and playing time. Undrafted free agent potential gem: they signed only one, DJ Boldin, Anquan’s lil bro.
  • New York Giants: the rich got richer. They knew what they needed but were confident in their talent base to get complementary players who either strengthen their schemes or add versatility (Clint Sintim is an intruiging prospect). Rhett Bomar is an interesting pick and one to watch. Surprised Jerry Reese took him but in the 5th round he represents good value. Look for DeAndre Wright to make the roster and make some noise.
  • Philadelphia: the Eagles again demonstrated that they are a team that understands the pro draft process. They traded picks to acquire Pro Bowl players in Jason Peters and Ellis Hobbs. They got good value with Cornelius Ingram and Macho Harris. I’m not thrilled with the LeSean McCoy pick because of his attitude problems but if he can focus on football he could be a good pro. I don’t think a lot of the Eagles picks make their roster not because the players aren’t good (most of them aren’t special) but their roster is deep.
  • New England: I’m not thrilled with their picks because they reached with Patrick Chung at 34th overall and Ron Brace has no heart (40th pick overall) but Darius Butler is a steal at 41st overall and Brandon Tate represents good value at 83 and they have depth to be patient as he rehabs his torn ACL. But NE clearly gets the point of the draft by using picks to trade for players or trade players for picks and it seems like everything Belichick does turns to gold. Undrafted free agent potential gem: Antonio Appleby, LB from Virginia needs to be motivated but he size to play inside in the NE 30 front.

    Teams that drafted well:
  • Arizona: they knew their holes and filled them with value picks; the Cards seem to be getting the concept of the draft after all these years. Undrafted free agent potential gem: Michael Ray Garvin, Florida.
  • Atlanta: Peria Jerry is a good fit at a need position but they need Lawrence Sidbury and William Moore to pan out in order to have a strong sequel to the 2008 draft. Vance Walker is a nice sleeper at DT. Undrafted free agent potential gem: Jose Valdez, G, Arkansas. They also signed John Parker Wilson. Is there another John Wilson out there? What gives?
  • Buffalo: they need a LT after letter Jason Peters go and they failed to get one. However, Wood, Levitre, and Nelson should strength the OL. Jairus Byrd was good value with the 42nd overall pick. Cary Harris could add nice CB depth though he lacks speed.
    Chicago: it was a risky draft but I like what Jerry Angelo did. Undrafted free agent potential gem: none. They signed a bunch of uninspiring undrafted kids. Good for you.
    Cincinnati: I like what they did. They got the guy they wanted with Andre Smith, they got a slightly uncontrollable force with LB Rey Maualuga in the second, and added perennial underachiever Michael Johnson in he fourth. Decent value that addresses needs. Undrafted free agent potential gem: they only signed two, but these two should make their roster: Quan Crosby, WR from Texas, and Mike Lucky, RB Nebraska.
  • Green Bay: they took BJ Raji which is a smart move for the team moving to the 30 look. Be advised that Raji is a two-down player but they have depth at NT to substitute on passing downs. But do you want a 2-down player for top ten money? Not me. Still, their run defense was awful in ’08 and the 3-4 doesn’t work without a NT. I like Clay Matthews’ versatility but moving up to get him doesn’t thrill me. TJ Lang and Jamon Meredith in the 4th and 5th rounds make this a better draft. Undrafted free agent potential gem: they signed a handful, but no one looks promising.
  • Houston: I’d move them up into the “very good” list but I am skeptical about Cushing. I feel like he’s Mike Mamula Jr. I like Connor Barwin for where they got him and Antoine Caldwell was a great pick for the 3rd round. James Casey in the 5th adds versatility to their potent passing attack.
  • Indianapolis: Bill Polian talks about taking the BPA and I think he did with Donald Brown. Brown has to develop pass blocking skills but he’s versatile and tough and will fight for PT right off the bat. I like Fili Moala but he’s a little soft. Jerraud Powers is a good pick and will complement the secondary. I love Austin Collie to the Colts. There, I said it. Curtis Painter is an intruiging pick because it says that Sorgipalooza is over. It is also a sign that Peyton is getting old. Ahem, getting older.
  • Jacksonville: good draft by the rookie GM. They addressed their OL needs immediately by having both Eugene Monroe and Eben Britton fall into their laps. There is their starting OT tandem to 2018. Terrence Knighton was a bit of a stretch at 72 overall. I like Mike Williams (WR from Arizona) and Jarrett Dillard (WR from Rice) back to back 4th and 5th rounds but they’re kind of the same receiver. Zach Miller may finally bring a real man to the TE position – for years they’ve gone for tall skinny basketball types. Rashad Jennings is a good little back and kind of a steal for Jacksonville in the 7th round. Undrafted free agent potential gem: they signed over a dozen UFA, but only Brock Bolen, FB from Loouhvull, stands out.
  • Minnesota: laugh all you want, but I think they got guys with both upside and immediate starter potential so therefore I like how they drafted. Yes they gave up too much for Sage Rosenfels (who will wear the number 2 because he has two kids, and because his style of play looks like he’s taking a number 2) but the Gus Bus frankly looked Christine-like last year. Undrafted free agent potential gem: they signed about a dozen and a few names stand out. Jon Cooper, C from Oklahoma, QB Sean Glennon from Virginia Tech are the notable UFA.
  • New Orleans: they only had four picks but I think they got good value and will get contributions from all four players this year. Malcolm Jenkins will push to start at CB immediately and Chip Vaughn will see playing time in the secondary. Gregg Williams always gets defensive players in the first round wherever he coaches (check the stats). Undrafted free agent potential gem: RB from Wisconsin PJ Hill will compete in training camp for a roster spot.
  • Pittsburgh: the Steelers have stable system and they find players to fit what the coaches need. Ziggy Hood is miscast in a 30 front. The world champions definitely know what they are doing with personnel. Undrafted free agent potential gem: Ramon Foster, OL, Tennessee. I’m sure they signed other good players, but only Foster jumps out at me now.
  • San Diego: AJ Smith tends to know what he’s doing so while Larry English is a reach at 15 overall, he does give the Chargers some leverage for Shawne Merriman’s rookie deal expires. They didn’t have a second rounder because they gave it up to get Jacob Hester last year, but Louis Vasquez represents nice value at 113th. Smith added depth and quality players and didn’t do anything fancy. Undrafted free agent potential gem: Sam Allen, OL, Grand Valley State; Darry Beckwith, LB, LSU; Rashaad Jackson, NT, Clemson.
    Seattle: Solid effort as the team didn’t reach and went with quality players who should be able to contribute immediately, which is what a team picking in the top five needs. Undrafted free agent potential gem: they signed underachieving DE Michael Bennett (lil bro of Cowboys’ TE Martellus Bennett) from TAMU. He should be good for a few laughs.
  • St Louis: the Rams didn’t blow me away with their picks. Time will tell the quality of this draft. Key is James Laurinitis – I don’t see him as a good pro MIKE or SAM backer. If he flames out, then this class is at risk. Still, DeVanney and Spags did a decent job their first time out. No glaring mistakes. Undrafted free agent potential gem: they signed 17 kids and I have no idea who they are.
  • Tennessee: the Titans were able to address needs with value picks. They landed potential starters in Troy Kropog in the 4th and Javon Ringer in the 5th. Undrafted free agent potential gem: Mitch King, DT, Iowa. They also signed Chris Mortensen’s kid.

    Teams on the bubble:
  • Carolina: I can understand trading away the 2009 first rounder for Jeff Otah, but trading away the 2010 first rounder for slidin’ Everette Brown is a puzzler. Supposed insurance for Julius Peppers, Brown is a solid kid but he’s no Peppers. I like their selections of Mike Goodson from Texas A&M and Tony Fiametta from the Cuse. Undrafted free agent potential gem: Marlon Favorite, LSU. I like Anthony Scirrito, S, Penn State, too. They also signed Penn State OL Gerald Cadogan. Cadogan has the size (6’7”, 300+lbs) to be an NFL OL. Why wasn’t he drafted? He was scouted as not being dedicated to football and “having other interests”. He cuts gospel records, plays the flute or something, and sang the national anthem for President Obama. Ross Tucker, who is a columnist for SI.com and has developed a real attitude somehow, ridiculed this assessment. Ross – NFL OL are supposed to have a bad attitude. I don’t want a gospel singer protecting my QB.
  • Dallas: a lot of people hate this draft, but I understand the method to the madness. They took quantity over quality and were satisfied with their roster going into the draft so they looked to add players who would have the best chance to make the roster by contributing to special teams and then grow into starters. Jones also wanted to get younger at the bottom of the roster. The only real quibble I have is with the selections of Victor Butler (DE/OLB from Oregon State) and Brandon Williams (DE/OLB from Texas Tech) in the 4th round. I would’ve liked to see them go OL as there was good value at that position in that round. Undrafted free agent potential gem: Kevin Ogletree, WR from Virginia, and Greg Isdaner, G, West Virginia.
  • Denver: I like their picks – Moreno, Ayers, Alphonso Smith, and Darcel McNBath could all be significant contributors this year – but they gave up a lot of picks to move up the draft board. Kind of silly. I like late-round picks Brandstater (QB from Fresno State) and Blaker Schlueter (C from Texas Christian) – I doubt these guys will make their roster, so other teams should scour the waiver wire for these guys. Undrafted free agent potential gem: they signed a bunch and the only one I know if Britton Colquitt, punter from Tennessee.
  • Kansas City: maybe I should’ve expected more from the anointed one, Scott Pioli, he of the dual Belichick-Parcells connection. But Tyson Jackson is a reach at 3 overall, the Cassel trade, and Alex Magee from Purdue. I like Magee, but I’m not sure it’s what they needed at that position in the draft. Undrafted free agent potential gem: none signed because they were too busy firing all their scouts the day after the draft.
  • Miami: might be surprised to see them on my bubble list, but when you draft Problem Child #1 with the your first pick, you’ve earned a spot in my book. The Dolphins have an insane schedule and I don’t think the coaches need to spend time teaching Vontae Davis to grow up and prepare for the Patriots passing attack. Then they took Sean Smith who has physical questions in the third and squeezed Wildcat White in the second, I don’t know; they seemed to draft a lot of luxury picks when they needed to continue to draft players to build a winning franchise. I don’t see Patrick Turner winning battles with AFC East corners. I don’t see a lot of impact starters here. A real boom-or-bust draft. Undrafted free agent potential gem: none signed?
  • New York Jets: makes you wonder how Tannenbaum thinks. He had three picks after trading up and handing over three starters/key role players to the Brownies. It all hinges on Sanchez. And as I am skeptical on Sanchez, the Jets are on this list. I like Shonn Greene and the Slauson kid; they will push for starting time in ’09, they need more players. Undrafted free agent potential gem: they signed close to 20 UFA, so quanity has a quality all its own. I like Emanuel Cook, S from South Cakcalacky; Ty Steinkuhler, DL from Nebraska; and Zach Potter, DL from Nebraska (hey one of them has to be good, right?).
  • Oakland: I don’t hate this draft as much as everybody else does. I see the logic in Heyward-Bey. Laugh him off, but pair him with Jamarcus Russell’s arm, and I don’t think that’s too funny. Add Louis Murphy, a good route runner on drags underneath or their TE, and you have something. Pundits don’t think the Raiders have receivers, and they don’t have proven guys, but I like Chaz SChilens development. Throw in a lead-draw with Run-DMC from a passing formation, and you have something there. Al Davis is crazy, but just because you’re crazy doesn’t mean you don’t have a plan or that you aren’t dangerous. Undrafted free agent potential gem: Oakland signed no UFA so maybe they are crazy and don’t have a plan? How do you sign no UFA?
  • San Francisco: how the mighty have fallen. I’m not assessing the quality of the players they picked but whom they picked and where. Taking Diva Michael Crabtree at 10 overall is a risky move for a the Niners who are looking to rebuild their franchise yet again. Coffee in the second and McKillop in the third and Pascoe in the sixth are guys Samurai Mike wants and can build around. The selection of Nate Davis shows the inexperience of the new leadership team – he is clearly a developmental prospect and probably will never transition into a pro starter. It’s an even riskier prospect when you look at how SF has done developing QB after the Walsh era ended. Undrafted free agent potential gem: they signed about a dozen, none of whom I think will add any value to the rookie class.
  • Tampa Bay: poor showing the first time out with Mark Domenik and Raheem Morris. They moved up when they didn’t have to for Josh Freeman. Time will tell if it was worth the cost but the Bucs need quality players. So far, they haven’t. Undrafted free agent potential gem: they only signed one, Rob Bruggeman, C from Iowa, and he should make the roster.
  • Washington: the team drafted well but the lack of empty picks (picks that were traded for players who are no longer on the roster) tarnishes whatever they were able to accomplish. They filled a need and got value with DE Brian Orakpo. He looks like Tarzan but plays like Jane, but if they line him up to Prince Albert’s side, he could be ok. They went all defense with their first four picks which is a little puzzling when they need to get younger and deeper at the OL, could use a little versatility at the RB position, and are still looking for a legit NFL #1 receiver. Undrafted free agent potential gem: Chase Daniels and Edwin Williams, OL from Maryland should make roster pushes from the dozen or so UFA they signed.

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