Mock V1

Actually, this about the 20th mock draft I've done but first I'm posting. I'm picking these mocks as how I see them going down. I'll throw in editorial comments as to what I think the team should take if the pick is different.




1. Detroit: Matttew Stafford, QB, Georgia. It's not the safest pick, but there are no really "safe" picks in the draft. Stafford has the maturity and the arm, no questions. But there are questions about his accurcy and gametime leadership. He did well at his pro day but scuttlebutt said he was trying to show off his arm strength throwing deep outs (in windy conditions) and was inaccurate. As you know the deep out is the money shot for QB meaning, if you can make this throw consistently, you will make a lot of money. If it was't Stafford, I'd take Eugene Monroe. The Lions have Gosder Cherilus and Jeff Backus as returning starters so there isn't a pressing need. Of course talking about pressing need with an 0-16 team is kind of a non sequitur, too.







2. St Louis: Eugene Monroe, OT, UVA. He's probably the best natural LT in the draft. He has good size and good footwork. He didn't embarrass himself against top competition this year. With the release of Orlando Pace, this is a natural choice. Not too many knocks on the kid.







3. KC: Aaron Curry, LB, Wake Forrest. The best pro prospect in the draft. He can play any linebacker position in either a 3-4 or 4-3 look. This is a great fit for the incoming management team. Clancy Pendergrast moves to KC to be Arizona Midwest or Dallas North with Todd Haley. The Chiefs announced that they will mix defensive fronts as Pendergrast has never coached a 3-4 defense but Scott Pioli likes it from New England. Read these posts from the Mile High Report on the 3-4. Excellent knowledge from this fan site on the MHR University page. Excellent. Made Jason Smith look bad when they played Baylor. Exceptionally mature. Read this expose from the Washington Post via Doug Farrar from Football Outsiders.







4. Seattle: The first wild card of the draft. They traded Julian Peterson for a DT, so they have a need at LB and they don't need a DL high in the draft though Ziggy Hood in the second round would be a nice steal. They need OL help badly. The talking heads focused on the injuries to the WR and the physical abuse Matt Hasselbeck endured but at the center of it all was the lost season that was their OL. If the draft unfolds as I've picked it so far, they will take Jason Smith from Baylor. Smith is a year or two away as he rarely put his hand down on the ground in the spread offense at Baylor. Mike Mayock compares him to Ryan Clady, the LT from Denver, and he may be, but Seattle doesn't or didn't run the same type of offensive line blocking scheme Denver did last year. The transition might not be as smooth for Smith in Seattle.







5. Cleveland: Another wild card. Mangini and Kokonis (referred to in this blog as Mankok) have brought over as many flawed defenders from the Jets as possible. They might have even brought over Chris Baker the touchdown maker for all I know. A lot of mocks have them taking Brian Orakpo from Texas. I thought about Malcolm Jenkins at this position until I read that he will likely move to FS. I don't think you take a FS in the top five. You need a guy to come in and lock down a money position. Orakpo is a pass rushing DE who can probably make the move to OLB in the 3-4. The knock on him is that he doesn't play the run. The big question is whether Mangini will remember the Gholston Folly and stay away from workout warrior, one-dimensional players. Vernon Gholston looked great in the weight room and at the combine but crapped out. The Jets now blame the poor rookie season on Mangini's complex defense but the fact is Gholston was a waste of a roster spot last year. Will Mangini fall in love with what I see as a similar player? Orakpo can get the QB, but he disappears at times and does not play with intensity you want to see from a top five guy.







6. Cincinnatti: Doesn't it always seem like they pick in the top 10? One thing I like about the English Premier League is that the bottom teams are relegated to a lesser league every year. The Browns would be a semi-pro team with player coach Jackie Moon by now. At this point, I think the Bengals take Andre Smith, the amazingly stupid and unmotivated manchild and one-time number one overall pick. The Bengals may go for Beanie Wells as they invited him in for a workout this week. They like to take backs in the first round and have a penchant for picking truly uninspiring ones. But the Bengals need help on the OL. Similar to Seattle, their offensive highlight were slim but in almost everyone,there was a Bengal OL missing a block, getting bull rushed, or just looking bad. Plus they let Stacy Andrews go in free agency.







7. Oakland: Come on. Like the Raiders will take anybody other than Michael Crabtree. They might, and if they do, a defensive lineman would be a good fit. BJ Raji from Boston College would be a nice pick here. Their run defense was truly awful but they showed grit when the Cable Guy took over.







8. Jacksonville: Another wild card. A lot of mocks have Mark Sanchez here. This puzzles me as their OL was awful but decimated by injuries, their WR were awful, and they cut their all time leading rusher who has signed with New England to join their cavalcade of running backs and provide veteran leadership and their feature back is five feet and nine inches in platform shoes. MoJo D is a favorite of mine but he can't stand up for 16 games. David Garrard is a good leader and a good QB, and I think there is good value in later rounds for developmental QB. Beanie Wells is an option if he's around to complement Drew. At eight overall, I'm royally stumped. OL and DL seem like the best options. BJ Raji could go here as they could use somebody to slap around John Henderson. I've cheked out other mocks because this is how uncertain I am about what Jacksonville will do. They don't have any real needs on defense. Malcolm Jenkins could go here but they are solid at four positions (and just signed Sean Considine to be their FS) there. Sanchez might be the best player available at 8. An OL is the biggest need but there isn't anybody left worth taking at 8. So I'll go with Missouri WR Jeremy Maclin. He also returns punts so he's a double weapon. Hopefully for Jacksonville he doesnt' do smack.







9. Green Bay: Kind of a surprise that they ended up in the top 10. They were hyped all year and were often favorites many weeks to win. Their defense was awful if you had to pick a culprit. Green Bay is another team moving to the 3-4 look. Key to the 3-4 is the nose tackle. BJ Raji is needed here to make it work. He can be the rock of their defense and make it work. If Raji's gone, then a 30 DE like Robert Ayers could work. Or a hybrid kind of player like Everette Brown. I'm going Raji.







10. San Francisco: I think they go defense here. QB was a big question going into the off season and the pundits are picking Sanchez here if he's available. A California kid would be a nice fit but they reworked Alex Smith's deal and aren't willing to cast him off. They lost JT O'Sullivan (do you really lose JT O'Sullivan?) and kept Shaun Hill who has the worst looking pass in the league but is a real competitor. I like Everette Brown here, from Free Shoes University, who will be an OLB in the Niners' 30 look. He can also put a hand down and make plays. A good all around kid from a bad character factory, I think he will flourish under Singletary's guidance.







11. Buffalo: They need a pass rusher badly. They generated no pressure last year whatsoever. If Everette Brown is gone, then I think they go with a defense end here like Aaron Maybin, Penn State, or Robert Ayers, Tennessee. Aaron Maybin might make more sense because he is atheltic enough to rush the passer. They won't be taking an offensive player in the first round or at least a skill guy.







12. Denver: In this mock, the best run stopper (which Denver needs and not only because it's going to a 30 front) is gone at this point. They have, through free agency, some good pieces on defense in place. They signed veteran depth for the defensive backfield and added young DT who can play nose. Here, Malcolm Jenkins makes the most sense as the best player available and somebody who can fill an immediate need (starter opposite Champ Bailey) and somebody to learn at the knee of Brian Dawkins. If they don't take Jenkins, then a defensive end like Robert Ayers make sense; they have to stop the run.





13. Washington: Rumor has it that Washington was favoring "the" USC linebacker. Which USC linebacker? They have three kids that might go in the first round, which may not have ever happened. Washington doesn't really need a LB (though teams always need depth at the position). They need to get younger, bigger, and stronger at OL, specifically OT. Michael Oher makes sense in this draft for them and is a good value at 13.





14. New Orleans: New Orleans has many needs. They could use talent at the OL. They could use a talented, 3-down RB. They could use a receiver with a pedigree. They could use a DB, but in the first round a safety to replace Kevin Kaesviharn eventually. They made a splash in free agency by signing Jabari Greer. They drafted Tracy Porter highly last year and he showed promise despite being hurt at the end of the year. In this draft I like Brian Cushing for them. Cushing can play any LB position (sort of) in a 40 front and would probably take the starting WILL backer spot from Scott Shanle. New Orleans is said to highly regard Cushing, too.





15. Houston: John McLain, reporter for the Houston Chronicle and respected authority on the Texans, had the Texans drafting a DL in the first round. I thought this suspicious as they have spent 3 or 4 #1s on DL. Then they signed Shaun Cody and McLain now reports that Houston won't take a DL. Their team is deep at several positions: WR, OL, QB, DL, and DB. They could use a DB because I don't trust Jacques Reeves (who played into a 5th round supplemental pick for the Cowboys somehow). Vontae Davis would be a decent pick for them but I don't trust him for some reason. They were so competitive last year because of Steve Slaton's emergence as a playmaker in the backfield. However, it's unlikely that Slaton can be a feature back and it's unlikely that any team would want to have a feature back anymore now that so many feature backs rarely finish a 16-game season intact. Knowshon Moreno, the best football playing running back in the draft would be a nice pick for them but he might be too much like Steve Slaton in style. I like Beanie Wells for the Texans. He has speed and power and would make a nice thunder and lightning (copyright all rights reserved, Tiki Barber and Mike Cloud) combo for the Texans.





16. San Diego Chargers: I like the idea of them taking someone like Knowshon Moreno. Yes, they have Darren Sproles and LDT but I don't think makes the other entirely effective. Moreno would make the Chargers running game a threat again. They could use another defensive back though they like Antoine Cason. So, when all else fails, take an energetic, ebuliant linebacker from USC. Rey Maualuga is a good fit in a lot of ways for the Bolts.





17. New York Jets: The Jets are in serious trouble. Think about what the Brett Favre experiment cost them. A lost season and another year of turnover in the organization. Mangini's personality or lack thereof is in truth probably as much a reason he's not around as Brett Favre's dead arm in December. Now the Jets have Kellen Clemens, Jay Ratliff, and Eric Ainge at QB. Laverneus Coles is gone but there isn't a top notch WR left and frankly it's probably more important to find the guy who's going to throw him the ball anyway. A DT would be a nice addition because you can't count on Kris Jenkins to stay healthy. However, Mark Sanchez, Man of Troy with 16 starts under his belt, is available and would be an instant upgrade over the current #2 and #3. Sanchez has the tools to be good but I don't know about his decision-making and game-readiness. He will need time to develop. Hopefully the Jets will give him the opportunity. One thing working for the organization is that Rex Ryan has lived with poor QB play from his Baltimore and knew how to weather growing pains of Joe Flacco last year.





18. Chicago: Chicago is an interesting franchise. They seem to be content playing mediocore football and when seasons break their way, make deep runs. Several blogs have them taking a receiver, but come on, Chicago is the place where receivers go to die. They could take a QB but they have made a commitment to Kyle Orton and oddly enough, the team kind of rallies around him. Jerry Angelo made public statements that the defense has to play better but the coaching staff has to coach better. The Bears, normally synonomous with a stout defense, were spotty and shoddy last year in all phases of the defensive game. Adding someone like Ole Miss DT Jeria Perry here would help quite a bit.





19. Tampa Bay: Tampa Bay could experience some significant growing pains under Raheem Morris. The team will respond to him, but I don't know if they have enough to be competitive this year. They folded under Gruden. They added KW2 and Derrick Ward and kept Antonio Bryant. They have an underrated, young OL. They need to bolster their defense as quickly as possible. It's like when Gruden left, he took the portrait of Dorian Grey with him. If Sanchez somehow falls to 19, then he would be a good fit. However, Tampa should wait until later and take player like Rudy Carpenter from Arizona State. At 19 overall, a DT like Ziggy Hood from Missouri would help immediately and help invigorate the team.





20. Detroit (from Dallas - thanks, Jerry!): Since they took an offensive guy at #1, I have them taking a defensive player. They need a DT. Since they traded Cory Redding to Seattle and added Julian Peterson and added Grady Jackson, but Jackson is old and fat and not as much a force. They would love it if Jeria Perry or Ziggy Hood fell to them, but I rate them higher than 20 overall. They don't need a LB and pairing up Cliff Avril with Julian Peterson could be scary for the other team, for once. I see the best value at cornerback with Alphonso Smith from Wake Forest. He's short but I'm not scared by short corners. Smith is smart and physical and very, very good.





21. Philadelphia: Knowshon Moreno, running back, Georgia. Brian Westbrook is getitng old (30? That counts as old) but it seems like he's been in the league since 1999 and is always on the injury report. As good as the Eagles are, they absolutely stink at drafting RB: Tony Hunt, Ryan Moats, and a bunch of other guys have been brought in over time to provide a relaible replacement to Westy. But Moreno is a great athlete who is also a great running back and player. Pundits talk about a "big back" to go with Westy a la Thunder and Lightning but they need a guy who fits their system. Moreno would be close to perfect.



22. Minnesota: Percy Harvin, WR, Florida. Minnesota has needs at safety but they can be addressed at the right talent value in the second round. Minnesota has problems at QB. One way to solve that would be take another QB. Some don't like the Sage Rosenfels trade, I do, but Rosenfels is a step above Gus Ferrotte somehow, in some sort of weird fuzzy football math. But another way to improve the production at that position is to give Tavaris Jackson weapons. Harvin is a guy who could be a nice weapon for Jackson - Harvin has gamebreaking speed and can take short and intermediate routes to the house.



23. New England: Larry English, LB, Northern Illinois University. New England could do DB and add youth to the influx of veteran corners they signed. Laurinitis would be a very nice addition to Jerod Mayo.



24. Atlanta: Brandon Pettigrew, TE, Oklahoma State. I orignally had this pick going to the defense, which could use help at LB to fill the void created by Keith Brooking and Michael Boley. They added Mike Peterson, who will provide leadership. but isn't a playmaker. Defense is the need, but at 24, I'm not convinced at this point that there is value with the players available. Pettigrew is an intriguing option. He doesn't have to come off the field on running downs (i.e., he can block) and he can catch passes though he didn't do it much at OK State.



25. Miami: Miami is a tough one to call. Their offensive line, once their weakness , is now a building block of the team. They have a solid backfield and they will find out this year if they have the QB of the future. Miami could really use a receiver but I don't know of too many Parcells teams that take a WR in the first round. Hey, not everybody is made like Keyshawn. Defensively, Miami could make a play for LB Clay Matthews. Parcells like kids with NFL pedigrees. But Miami has this secret weapon in from Canada to line up next to Peasy. So one overachieving outside linebacker is enough. They could use a defensive back namely a corner. Wide receiver could be a good match for value and need here - Hakeem Nicks, North Carolina.



26. Baltimore: James Laurinitis, LB, the Ohio State University. Bart Scott's gone and taken his violent football to New York. Laurinitis isn't flashy like your standard Baltimore defensive player, but he's fundamentally solid and very mature. He could be a very good understudy to Ray Lewis. Big question mark is whether Laurinitis is another LB from Linebacker Junior College (Andy Katzenmoyer, Vernon Gholston, Anthony Schlegel, and Cie Grant).



27: Indianapolis: This is a tough call here given the way the picks have fallen in this draft. Indianapolis desparately needs help along the defensive line, predominantly at DT. However, only Peria Jerry and Ziggy Hood merit first round tags and even then, there isn't consensus in mocks that Hood is a first rounder (I think he is). The irony is, at this point the value picks are in the wide receivers - Hakeen Nicks, Kenny Britt, and Derrius Heyward-Bey are speedy guys who would be natural first rounders for Indy in almost any other year. The Colts could also go RB with Donald Brown as Joe Addai may have peaked. There are questions as to whether Brown can pass block, something that he didn't do at UCONN. They could get value from an offensive lineman here like Eben Britton or William Beatty. At this point, I like Donald Brown.



28: Philadelphia: I don't expect Philly to keep this pick. They haven't actually picked in the first round for a years now, so I expect them to trade their 21st pick and use this one. There is a lot of talk about them taking an OT, but they signed Stacy Andrews and feel they can move his brother Shaun to LT or Todd Herremans.



29: New York Giants: New York has over 10 picks and Jerry Reese has said that he doen't want to keep them all. Given the problems of Plexico Burress and their defensive free agent pickups, the natural move here is to take a WR. Kenny Britt is the pundits' favorite choice here. I'm not even sure the Giants need to take a receiver. Plex might be available at some point next year - he's not been found guilty yet - and the Giants just turned down a trade for Braylon Edwards because they wanted Steve Smith. I could easily see Reese packaging picks and trading up for an impact player, into the top five. I'm not sure there are that many impact offensive players, but Reese could do it, and he might be flush with recent success to try it. But all that aside, let's say the Giants take Kenny Britt from Rutgers. Rutgers with another Day One draft pick?



30: Tennesse: Here is another odd situation where value says WR but the team doesn't have a history of taking players at this position. I like a player like Hakeem Nicks or Kenny Britt here from Rutgers because even though they signed Nate Washington, there is a big need here. Maybe they will wait for either Vince Young to emerge or start another QB project before taking a receiver high. Despite losing Albert Haynesworth, they don't need to take a DT high because of young Jason Jones. I like taking a top interior lineman like Max Unger for Oregon. How is this for versatility - he started at tackle then moved to center but still pulls on outside running plays. Tennesee makes its hay by controlling the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. Kevin Mawae missed the divisional game against Baltimore and it showed.



31: Arizona Cardinals: Arizona took Tim Hightower last year and hoped he would be an Edgerrin James clone and while he had a nose for the end zone, he had little else going for him. Several mocks have the Cards taking Beanie Wells, but no way he falls this low. Arizona's running game is nonexistant especially losing the emerging 3rd down back JJ Arrington (and former #1 pick). However they lost Antonio Smith, a young defensive end who was a nice contributor in their super bowl run last year. They can make a move to replace him with either Robert Ayers or Tyson Jackson. Ayers had a nice senior year and may be a one year wonder, but he has more upside than Jackson. Robert Ayers, DE, Tennessee.



32: Pittsburgh Steelers: The Steelers gambled big time last year letting their best OL leave (Alan Faneca) and not bringing in anyone near comparable. They nearly got their QB killed. Yet they won the Super Bowl, so the error went overlooked. Maybe not by Ben Rothlisberger, but by most media. There is good value with somebody like Alex Mack, C, California, but the Steelers need an OT. William Beatty will be a good addition for them.