Free Agency and the Draft

It's two weeks into free agency and about 40 days to the draft. As teams anticipate a capless year, there will be extra scrutiny, or at least there should be, to pre-draft preparation. Teams that have top five draft picks should pay extra attention to the deals they're going to be shelling out; they will have to negotiate their rookie's salary carefully to give navigating room in 2010. The scenario I have in mind is the Detroit Lions who have to choose between Mattthew Stafford and Jason Smith or trading out. The Lions aren't typically free spenders so trading down and targeting one of the other first round-caliber tackles (Michael Oher, William Beatty, or Eben Britton) is an option especially as it would give the Lions extra picks and right now they need all the impact players (i.e., starters) they can get.

The other question is how accurately do free agent moves foreshadow draft intentions? Seattle needs receiver help badly (well, receivers whose knee cartilege can stand up to grass) and even though they signed TJ Houshmandzadeh, is that really addressing the need? Perhaps. Many mocks missed the fact that Seattle's offensive line evaporated last year. Injuries and age caught up to them. An OT would be a much nicer fit and it's amazing how you QB plays better from the upright position.

Dallas needs a safety and made room for one by cutting Roy Williams. However, they signed Gerald Sensabaugh formerly of Jacksonville this week. Sensabaugh is a good talent and appears much more comfortable playing safety than Roy Williams did and plus he played ST well for new ST coordinator Joe DeCamillis. Many mock drafts (mine included) had Dallas getting nice value with the 51st overall pick from a safety - Patrick Chung or William Moore perhaps. If I were Dallas, I'd go with either one if one was available at 51. Sensabaugh gives them 6 safeties on the roster (what they had at the end of 2008). I would like them to cut Ken Hamlin. There is a projected run on safeties in the second round, but I have to think someone - Chung, Moore, maybe Rashad Johnson - would be around. Maybe Dallas will luck out then and get somebody like Phil Loadholt, an OT who could also go to G if he's not quick enough.

I like Dallas' moves in the offseason - first addition by subtraction (Pacman, Tank Johnson, then TO) and then quality moves that made sense: trading for Jon Kitna, signing Keith Brooking, and signing Igor Olshansky. On the surface they traded a starting CB for a 35 year old backup QB, but Anthony Henry shouldn't have been starting last year. Against the Ravens he was dominated by Derrick Mason who had one arm. Seriously. Olshansky is a great fit in the Dallas 30 front. They won't lose much compared to Canty. Keith Brooking is a younger version of Zach Thomas (3 years) minus the migranes. Brooking can be exposed in coverage, true, but so can your mom. Brooking brings leadership and is a lunch pail kind of player and that is what Dallas needs now.

Speaking of safeties, the Eagles lost both Brian Dawkins and Sean Considine go in free agency and added Sean Jones and Rashad Baker over the last few days. Looks like they won't go after a safety in the second round, they will probably take a flier on one later. Even though they signed Stacy Andrews from the Bengals, they will go for an OT having dropped both starters from last year and are shopping Winston Justice on Craig's List.

Cleveland under ManKok has signed as many Jets as possible. However at five overall most mocks have them going for Malcolm Jenkins (I do) or Brian Orakpo (too inconsistent for the 5th overall but Mangini bit on workout warrior Vernon Ghoulston). Do the Browns go for another defensive player? They have no pressing OL needs and taking Crabtree might make sense if they traded Braylon Edwards instead of giving an honorable discharge to KWII. Do they keep going defense? I'd like to see them add franchise back; Jamaul Lewis is a very old 30 years and they have some nice guys who can get a few touches but they need somebody to pound the rock behind that OL.

Likewise, Tennessee needs a receiver badly. They haven't had any reliable receiver since Derrick Mason left. Two Derrick Mason references in one post, odd. Anyway, I have them taking a receiver in the first round or an OL, thinking how they couldn't do didley poo against the Ravens without Kevin Mawae. They signed Nate Washington (and there was much rejoicing), do they go back to the well in the draft? At the back end of the first round, I don't see too much greatness out there for receivers - Kenny Britt from Rutgers, Hakeem Nix, Mohammed Mossaqoui are all nice players but I'm not sure any of them are really exciting anybody too much. Plus, I'm not sure I trust any QB on their roster to relaibly get them the ball.

We've got a ways to go, and here are the teams I think have done the best and moves I like the most:

1. New England. Really like the Cassel and Vrabel trade. Signing Shawn Springs and Leigh Bodden helps their secondary. Chris Baker is a quietly productive TE. He shouldn't have to come off the field on third downs but with the Pats offense, you never know.
2. New York Giants. An embarrassment of riches on the DL though the amount of money they paid Chris Canty is a little astounding to a 30 end moving inside the play tackle. Canty had very good games against the Giants, so maybe that's why. Michael Boley is a nice LB addition and Rocky Bernard is a great signing. Maybe they deal some DL depth on draft day for more picks?
3. Houston. Getting a fourth rounder for Sage Rosenfels (who's not bad, but he finds new ways to lose every week) and signing Antonio Smith from Arizona are great moves. Again, John McLain from the Houston Chronicle says Houston will draft a DL in the first round bu they would be better served with a running back to pair with Steve Slaton. I criticize Sage Rosenfels with one sentence and then praise the signing of Dan Orlovsky with the other. I don't know; Rosenfels is all he's going to be. Orlovsky has some room to develop. Kubiak better coach him up because Matt Schaub is like Glass Joe from Mike Tyson's Punchout.
4. Miami. If only for signing Gibril Wilson to pair with Yeremiah Bell. Should be fun to watch AFC East battles.
5. NYJ. Bart Scott, Jim Leonhard. It's early, but I'm believing in RexBall already. Get ready for some violent football.
6. WAS. It's a lot of money to shell out to Prince Albert and Deangelo Hall, but Haynesworth should change everything for the defense. They have a solid secondary and if Haynesworth produces even close to 2008 levels. then they are very good next year.

Teams about which I have some questions:

1. Denver. The way the bungled the Jay Cutler no-trade aside, I don't get why they sign a bunch of running backs who couldn't start for other teams when they have a bunch of guys that couldn't start for the Broncos in 2008. McDaniels should give Peyton Hillis more PT. He is a football player. Assuming his knee works next year. JJ Arrington will be a return specialist but those guys are nice to have but not a necessity. I like the Chris Simms signing. Why was he a free agent for so long? The Jabar Gaffney and Lonie Paxton (former NE LS) signinings were weird security blanket signings for the new coach.
2. DAL. I want to like their moves but I am still counting the Roy Williams deal against them. The 20th overall pick would be nice - they could take a WR if one fell to them (Percy Harvin would be intruiging) or draft a nice young linebacker like James Laurinitis. But now they are hanging out and I won't get to see whom Dallas takes until probably 4 PM Sunday the 26th. The draft starts at 12 or 1 on Saturday the 25th. Which is ok because the 25th is my son's birthday and I won't be watching the draft anyway.
3. Tampa Bay. Sure you sign Derrick Ward, franchise Antonio Bryant, and trade for KWII (a second rounder and a pick next year) but what good does that do when you have one of the Flying McCown Brothers (Luke, maybe Josh, who can tell?) under center. I would take Sage over both of those guys.